Jake Morris
The penultimate round of football has arrived and we still have four teams vying for that all-important fourth and final spot in September action. The Tigers, Swans, Wickers and Sharks are all chances to advance to the final four, with the former two sitting a game ahead of the latter pair. North Brunswick, Parkside and St Francis Xavier all claimed dominating wins in Round 17, Elsternwick kept their season alive with a monumentally important victory over the Sharks while Masala notched their second win of the season over a disappointing Rams outfit. It has been an electrifying year of D4 action, and our final round will be no different, here is what to expect.
The Premiership favourites and all-around juggernaut North Brunswick end their home & away season with a trip to Lindsey Hassett Oval for a matchup with the South Melbourne Districts, who need to win to give themselves the best chance of a top four finish. The Swans currently sit just 2% behind the fourth placed Tigers, and with South Mornington losing two in a row and facing a red-hot Elsternwick side this week, the Swans have every opportunity to crack the top four for the first time since 2016. The Bulls will be looking to get through this one unscathed, with the ultimate prize of their first senior club Premiership since 1981 now on the forefront of everyone’s mind. The Swans were dismal last week in a 138-point trouncing at the hands of the Red-Devils, while the Bulls demolished an underwhelmed South Mornington by 165-points. Look for this green and yellow freight train to top off an almost perfect home & away season with a big win, knocking the Swans out in the process.
Winners in nine of their last ten, Parkside are arguably the in-form team of the competition, and are now by far and away the biggest challenges to the Bulls this finals series. The Red-Devils will finish their regular season campaign with a trip east to Mt Lilydale for a matchup with the Rams. From their last nine victories, Parkside have an average winning margin of 82-points a game, while the Rams, who are in the midst of their longest losing streak of the season at six games, have an average losing margin of 53-points from those clashes, which includes an embarrassing 27-point loss to bottom placed Masala. One silver lining the Rams can take away from their season, they were the only outfit to take down the ladder-leading Bulls this year. The Red-Devils 138-point dispatching of the Swans on the weekend was their second biggest victory on the season, only beaten by their Round 14 156-point whitewash of Masala, and with the form the Rams are in currently, a similar result could be emulated. Look for Parkside to get the win here, and enter their first finals matchup with North Brunswick roaring.
We already know that the Bulls and Red-Devils will be squaring off in the competitions first semi-final, but St Francis Xavier are yet to discover who they will be facing in their first finals matchup, a do-or-die elimination final. It is unlikely, but Eley Park are one of those sides vying for a spot, with a lot needing to happen for them to qualify. Despite a mid-season form slump which saw the X-Men lose five of seven games, they have well and truly righted the ship just in-time for finals, with a three-game winning streak and a load of confidence heading into their first finals appearance since 2016. The Sharks need a lot to go right for them to feature in Finals football, beginning with a big win here, losses to both South Mornington and the South Melbourne Districts, but hoping Elsternwick don’t beat the Tigers by too much for percentage reasons. It’s a mathematical possibility but highly unlikely at the same time. Look for the X-Men to get the job done here, eliminate the Sharks and enter the post-season on a four-game winning streak.
After winning eight of nine and coming from the clouds to etch themselves into a top four spot, South Mornington have now lost two on the trot and are in real danger of relinquishing fourth position. Their opponents this weekend in Elsternwick have won five of their last six, giving them eight wins and a percentage they can work with as they try and do the unthinkable and snatch that last finals spot from the Tigers. The key omission of competition goal-scoring leader Travis French from the South Mornington side has resulted in two uncharacteristic defeats, including a 165-point pummelling at the hands of North Brunswick last weekend. The equation is simple for the Tigers, win, and barring a blowout victory by the Swans over ladder-leaders North Brunswick, they’re in. Elsternwick, like the Sharks, will need results to get their way if they wish to qualify for finals action, but their chances are significantly greater thanks to their percentage. A win here, combined with losses to both the Swans and Sharks, could see them leapfrog into the four and set up a juicy elimination final with the X-Men. If French isn’t able to pull the boots on this weekend, look for the Wickers to claim victory here, pushing them to nine wins and a very likely chance of a finals berth.
Our final clash between Box Hill North and Masala won’t light the world on fire, but will feature two sides eager to show some pride and end their season the right way. Masala have won two of their last three and despite a disappointing year, a win here will reward the Tigers with their first two-game winning streak in the clubs history. The Dees have had a hard time in their first season in D4, with just four wins on the year and one from their last ten outings, a season of learning and adapting could be good as the club continues to grow. Look for Masala to get the points here.
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