Jake Morris
As the home & away season draws to a close and Caulfield, Scotch, Blacks, Sharks and Tigers jostle for finals positioning, the race to stay in the competition for 2020 is also reaching the pointy end. Parkdale, Old Geelong, Old Haileybury, Fitzroy and Monash Blues are all a mathematical chance to feature inside the bottom two when the final siren goes on Saturday afternoon. Here is what must happen for each of these sides to survive the relegation cut off and return to Premier B next season.
Parkdale Vultures (6th) 5-12 & 71.60%
A five-game losing streak from Rounds 12 to 16 saw the Vultures plummet into relegation contention despite a competitive season prior. A tough ask in Round 18 as they face the University Blacks who are red-hot on a seven-game win streak by an average margin of 67 points. An unlikely Vultures victory will see them stay afloat for 2020, but if they do falter, a few results will need to go their way if they wish to stay in the competition. Old Haileybury must defeat the Monash Blues, OR Beaumaris must take care of Fitzroy. If the Vultures find themselves on the wrong end of the scoresheet against the Blacks and the Blues and Roys each collect wins, Parkdale could find themselves on the outside looking in as the home and away season draws to a close.
Old Geelong (7th) 5-12 & 71.38%
A huge Round 17 win over the fifth placed St Bedes/Mentone Tigers elevated the OGs out of bottom two, jumping both Monash Blues and Old Haileybury into safety. A final round clash against ladder leaders Caulfield Grammarians, who have lost only two games for the year, is a nightmare result for Old Geelong, who have arguably been one of the more competitive sides to sit in the bottom five. Much like the Vultures, an unlikely win is required to assure themselves they stay in the competition for next year, but if they do go down to the Fields, they’ll need Old Haileybury to beat Monash, OR Beaumaris to down Fitzroy, meaning the lowest they can fall is eighth. A Fitzroy/Blues victory paired with a loss to Caulfield will put them in contention with the Bloods, Blues and most likely Vultures to not return in 2020.
Old Haileybury (8th) 5-12 & 71.32%
The Bloods enter Round 18 with the longest losing streak in the competition at five, but with a clash against the 10th placed Monash Blues at Princes Park up next, the Bloods will have nobody but themselves to blame if they crash below the cut off point. Holding a 6.92% advantage over Fitzroy and a 4.08% + 1 game advantage over the Blues, this is a must win-game that will allow them to stave off a Premier B return for 2020. If their losing streak does continue to six and the Blues get the chocolates, a Fitzroy win over Beaumaris will send the Bloods to ninth on the table, but a Beaumaris win will almost certainly keep them above the relegation mark. A four-goal loss or more to the Blues this weekend paired with a Fitzroy win could affect their percentage enough to see them drop to as low as 10th.
Fitzroy (9th) 5-12 & 64.40%
Like the OGs, a monumental Round 17 win over Old Haileybury drew the Roys’ equal with the Vultures, OGs and Bloods for five wins on the season, moving them ahead of Monash who have just four. Round 18 will see Fitzroy face Beaumaris, who must win to cement their finals spot, so it’s safe to say they’ll come out firing to assure themselves of a top-four finish. A loss here and barring any monstrous losses by the previous three squads, will see them play Premier C in 2020. A win, and the Roys will almost certainly keep their heads above water.
Monash Blues (10th) 4-13 & 67.24%
For the Blues to play on in Premier B next year, they must defeat Old Haileybury in Round 18, no questions asked. A loss and they will Premier C bound and there is no other result that can save them. If the Blues do take down the slipping Bloods and the Sharks take care of business against Fitzroy, that’ll be enough for ninth. But if the Blues win by roughly five-goals and the Vultures OR OGs lose by roughly a similar margin or more in their matches, the Blues could leapfrog the bunch. Though the battle for fourth between Bedes and Beauy may get the headlines, don’t forget about the race from relegation.
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