Are we set for a weekend of ‘classic 8-point games’ or will recent history continue?

Joe Pignataro

While I love nothing more than looking at the head-to-head battles across William Buck Premier. The grumpiest man in the competition Brian Waldron loves nothing more than using the phrase “classic 8-point game” which to me is a complete fallacy. Every game will only ever be worth 4-points. This week I’m attempting to find common ground with my smiling-grumpy colleague in an aim to meet in the middle.

Last week our old friend was boasting about getting 5/5, and he would have been accurate. Had St Bernard’s not beaten Caulfield, had Old Xaverians not thrashed Old Scotch and had the Old Melburnians not run out of time against University Blues.

So while he goes for “feel” I’ll use my VAFA Champion Data style calculator to assist the rest of us as we look ahead to a massive Round 14.

Out at Camberwell Sports Park, Old Scotch won’t find themselves in an easy contest against St Bernard’s. The Cardinals were stunned in the opening 30 minutes against Collegians in Round 13 and chased the tail of the Lions for the rest of the afternoon. Getting to within 19 points during the final quarter, but never able to cause a significant dent in the momentum of the purple army.

If they’re fortunate enough to keep Doug Lawrence from the VFL, if they’re bringing back Aiden Franetic and Tom Ansell holds out Zac O’Halloran in the ruck, that will go a long way in itself to winning this game. St Bernard’s last weekend ended a run of nine consecutive losses, finally there’s something to smile about from the boys of Essendon. Accuracy in front of goal certainly helped, for just the second time this year they were able to kick 10 goals for the game.

Despite Waldron being very complimentary towards the Cardinals last week, he has forecast this to be a ‘danger game’ given their spot on the ladder. If they’re to completely close the door on relegation discussions, and St Bernard’s hopes of getting out of the bottom two, they can’t afford to be off their game.

Old Scotch have won the last 4 meetings against St Bernard’s. History is set to continue on the trajectory this weekend. Save the line of the ‘classic 8-point game for next time.

Old Xaverians did to Old Brighton what St Kevin’s did to them before the double bye. Set up the victory in the first quarter. And, don’t let up from there. What a day to be aligned with Xav’s, an opening term blitz. Followed by a final quarter trouncing.

Sometimes you get moments within a game, and games within a season when it all just clicks. This could be that moment for the red and black mafia. No surprise again, Xavier Richards plays and kicks another four goals. Seven games this year, 28 goals. He hasn’t stepped off his 4-goal average since his debut in 2021 with the club.

Apart from moments in the third quarter for the Tonners, there was little to no reprieve or let up from the travelling side. Hellbent on keeping in touch with the top three, while keeping this weekend’s opponent at bay. The club, so impressed with the performance, moved to lock away senior coach James Byrne earlier this week for season 2023 and 2024.

Collegians (this weekend’s opponent) started just as emphatically as Xav’s and are certainly in a better position this time around to contend with the A-Grade rivals. 5-wins on the trot from the boys of Harry Trott. Dave Mirra (27 goals for the year), Ed Greene (24 goals) will be a challenge for the defence of Xavier.

At home, I can’t wait to watch Sam Hibbins, Kenny Ong do battle with Marcus Stavrou and Dan Robinson. Nor will I be able to take my eyes off Matt Warren vs. Xavier Richards up forward.

The number #1 ranked side of the last five rounds, against the side that announced themselves last weekend. History is on the side of Old Xaverians having won the past three encounters, but this moment trumps the history card and falls the way of the classic 8-point game. The winner is outright fourth with a month to play.

Old Brighton have won the last 3 against Old Trinity. The T’s are hanging perilously to eighth spot on the table. Prior to last weekend they had a 2-game gap on University Blues and St Bernard’s, it’s now just one. And, should results fall the way of both those sides, the lowly percentage the green and gold have will really hurt them come 5pm Saturday.

It may be the least opportune time to run into Old Brighton. Despite the last five games going loss, win, loss, win, loss. You have to go back to Round one and Round two of season 2019 the last time they dropped back-to-back games. Greg Hutchison, and the 22 selected won’t allow what happened on Saturday against Old Xavier to happen again.

Similar to Xav’s at Brighton, and Collegians in Camberwell. Old Trinity were jumped by St Kevin’s in the opening term, and trailed by 21 points. The positive for the T’s from beyond quarter time, on the scoreboard, they finished 21 points behind at the end of the game. Staying the final three quarters with the ladder leaders. Myles Scott is proving to be a danger forward for them with goals in three of his last 4 matches.

History favours Old Brighton every way you look at it. Statistically it also falls in their favour. And it’s tough to see how Old Trinity can overcome them this weekend.

The RSN Carnival Match of the Day is headed out to Glen Huntly Oval. Old Melburnians have won the last 4 over Caulfield Grammarians. I can’t see for a moment Paul Satterley leaving the door slightly open at all for the Fields this week after having the game taken away from them in the final term last weekend.

Earlier this year Caulfield were in the box seat to bury OM’s had it not been for inaccuracy in front of goal at Elsternwick Park. This Saturday, at home. Julian Dobosz has a real opportunity with a slightly weakened OM’s defence to get up the ground and send home long-range bombs.

In the last three losses Caulfield has experienced, they’ve averaged 54 points for. While conceding an average of 74 points in those games. While I can’t see Satts leaving the door open, I am very excited to see the Fields midfield face off with the OM’s brigade. Declain Reilly, up against Nick De Steiger is where it will all start.

History is on the side of OM’s in the head-to-head battle, they’d like history to repeat itself this weekend to stay in touch with the top two sides. Caulfield, need to buck the history trend to eliminate discussion of them in the relegation zone.

After not meeting in 2021, the two most recent Premiers. University Blues and St Kevin’s will face off at Melbourne Uni. Earlier this year, Guy Martyn’s return to T H King looked favourable as Sam Grimley produced a power forwards day for the ages with eight goals. Unfortunately for the Blues, the dominance of St Kevin’s came to the fore as they ran over the top of them in the final quarter.

The head-to-head battle has the ledger squared at 2-all in the previous four meetings. The Grand Final of 2019 is too far gone, and counts for nothing this Saturday. The teams, and coaching staff of both sides are completely different.

The trajectory these teams are now on, are completely different. A St Kevin’s win almost certainly gives them a lock for top two given Old Scotch (6th), Caulfield (7th), and St Bernard’s (10th) are to come in three of their final four matches. If Uni Blues can win at home (for the first time since round 8) and Old Trinity lose, it gets them out of the bottom two and sets up a big round 15 where they’ll face the T’s at Melbourne Uni to extend out of the relegation zone.

Even though they had to come from behind to win it, and a stroke of good fortune. The messaging from Uni Blues during this week is there was a glint in the eye heading into the game after being flatted the week before.

They can’t play off this September from where they’re at, but they can certainly shape who does play off in September and the finishing order of the top four. On the ladder itself, it all points to St Kevin’s, once the balls bounced, it’s a toss of the coin.

History from the last time they met, has me leaning towards St Kevin’s.

If Brian Waldron is still reading at this point of the piece, well done Wally. I’m sure I’ll hear all about it next week.

In terms of what’s to come, it’s really anyone’s guess. The best part about the history this weekend, is that no matter which way you look at it, we are guaranteed games next weekend because this time 12-months ago in history, they shut the gates on our season and sent us back home to twiddle our thumbs.