William Buck Premier Men’s – Round 14 Preview

Round 14 of William Buck Premier Men’s is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal of the entire season.

All five matches will have a huge impact on the league ladder, as some teams jostle for September position while others fight for survival.

Let’s take a closer look at what promises to be a gripping Saturday afternoon of action:

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OLD XAVERIANS vs OLD BRIGHTON (Sat 2pm – Toorak Park: VAFA TV & SEN app)

Our VAFA SEN Match of the Day call team will be at Toorak Park as two likely flag contenders lock horns in a huge game for both the Top 2 and Top 4 races.

Old Xavs managed to scrape past St Bernard’s at the Snake Pit, but lost top spot to the Blues on percentage in the process. They are guaranteed to play finals for a second straight year, and remain two games clear of third place (St Kevin’s) in the race to finish Top 2 and avoid a cut-throat Semi Final.

For Xavs right now, it’s about getting all their best players back on the park and settled for September, while locking away that Top 2 finish to secure prime position for their flag tilt.

Old Brighton enters the weekend in fourth, two games plus percentage clear of Old Scotch in fifth. But the Cardinals are surging, putting pressure on the Tonners to maintain that gap; even more so given they face the Top 2 teams in the coming fortnight: Xavs this week and Uni Blues in Round 15.

The ‘Tullamarine Flu’ has ravaged the reigning champs, and they’ve dropped 4 of their last 7 games without some of their prime-movers. Like Xavs, their return has begun and they can’t get back into the action quickly enough, to ensure the Tonners stabilise and get back on track to firstly qualify for September, then have a real shot at defending their crown.

There’s no question that Old Brighton’s best is still good enough to go back-to-back, but we haven’t seen it as often as we did in their historic 2025 campaign. It’s still small steps for Marcel Bruin and his charges right now, but it would be a ‘huge leap’ this weekend if they can knock off Xavs on their own home deck.

They will need to find a little more strike power if they are to get the job done. In the first 6 matches, the Tonners averaged a whopping 108 points per game. But in the past 7 matches, that has plummeted to 66 points (and just 61 across their last 4 starts).

Fortunately, their defence has risen to the challenge and held teams to even less (SKOB to 63pts, Blacks 61, and Trinity 56 last week). But restricting Xavs’ high-powered #2-ranked offence (averaging 97ppg) to around the 10-goal mark is a big ask, so if the Tonners can unlock a little more scoring potential, that will give their back six a bit more to work with.

And that help needs to start with their midfielders around the contest. Xavs are #3 for Contested Possession, while Brighton are #9 (only Old Trinity have won less contested ball this season).

Pressure on the ball-carrier is paramount, and it’s been telling that Xavs’ two lowest Contested Possession counts all season have been their last 2 starts, when they were well beaten by the Blues, then scraped home against the bottom-of-the-ladder Snowdogs.

Last week’s 20 Hard Ball Gets was Xavs’ second-fewest for the year. Their fewest? Against the Tonners in Round 7 – that’s got to be the starting point for Marcel Bruin’s men.

Even if the Tonners aren’t winning clean ball around stoppage, they need to ensure that Xavs aren’t walking it out of there either, because the Red & Black simply have too many dangerous forward targets, so you can’t cover them all.

The Blues’ ability to pressure Xavs’ delivery Inside 50 held the then league-leaders to their lowest Inside 50 Efficiency of the season (the percentage of time they hit a target when entering Forward 50).

At the other end, the Blues also pressed up, making it tougher for Xavs to exit the Defensive 50, and they hit their exit target just 47% of the time – their lowest exit success all season.

So, once the Tonners’ midfield gets it Inside 50, their job isn’t done. They need to lock it in their front half with relentless pressure to create repeat opportunities and deny Xavs’ their high-octane transition game that can cut you to ribbons with ruthless efficiency.

Fortunately, the Tonners are #1 for Intercept Possessions and #2 Tackles. So much of their success over the past couple of seasons has been based on their ability to force teams into errors, then punish them with surgical precision (#1 for Hitting Targets exiting D50 and entering Forward 50).

It promises to be a fascinating tactical battle between two great coaches and well-drilled teams, and you can enjoy our award-winning VAFA SEN Match of the Day coverage LIVE & FREE on VAFA TV & the SEN app from 1.45pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

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UNIVERSITY BLUES vs OLD SCOTCH (Sat 2pm – Melb Uni Oval: VAFA TV & Kommunity TV)

The two hottest teams in William Buck Premier Men’s clash in a massive contest at Melbourne University, as the league-leading Uni Blues play host to back-to-back Grand Finalists Old Scotch, who are fighting for their September survival once again.

The Blueboys are on top of the ladder for the first time since Round 18, 2019, after their 97-point belting of Old Haileybury saw them leapfrog Xavs on percentage.

Matt Smith’s team has developed an ideal blend of youth and experience, led by a cohort of former AFL players who are fit and firing in 2026.

James Stewart’s 11 goals last week lifted him to 58 for the season, some 12 goals clear of Xavs’ spearhead Charlie Macisaac. But if Stewart doesn’t get you, another former AFL player, Sam Grimley, might.

He’s been flying under the radar in recent weeks, but still highly effective and well capable of ripping a game from your grasp in 10-to-15 minutes of unstoppable brilliance. Grimley has 30 goals for the campaign, to sit equal third on the leaderboard, and while he’s been playing a more selfless role in recent weeks, he can click into gear and torch you at any moment.

Marty Gleeson has been the centrepiece of the Blues’ dominant midfield. But it speaks volumes that, despite being the Blues’ leading ballwinner (averaging 22 disposals per game), he is ranked #13 in the league for Disposals. The Blues don’t rely on one or two great players to beat you. They do it by committee, and that’s far more difficult to stop.

The league-leaders dominate games from the back. Ranked #1 Defence (conceding just 63 points per game), they are blessed with A-graders such as Brad Ebert, Taylor Duryea, Cam O’Shea and Geordie LaCava.

The first 3 of that quartet are seasoned AFL players, and their composure, decision-making and execution under pressure are key reasons why the Blues are not only so difficult to score against, but why the Blues can turn defence into attack so quickly and effectively.

In fact, the entire Blues’ game is based on balance. Believe it or not, despite being on top of the table, Uni Blues are NOT ranked #1 in ANY major stat category. But they rank in the top handful in most of them.

They are so difficult to play because they aren’t reliant on 1-2 players or 1-2 team strengths.

You need to outplay them across the entire ground for the entire four quarters, which isn’t easy to do when they boast the depth of talent that they do, with the likes of Ben Townson, Jack Hayter, Will Furphy, Tom Hill, Mitch Lloyd, Max Irving, Jack O’Sullivan and a host of others providing the necessary depth around their ex-AFL stars.

This depth has been the difference so far in 2026. In previous seasons, the Blues’ top-end talent was brilliant and match-winning, but this year, they have developed more depth and consistency across all lines, so if the handful of top-end stars get injured, their season won’t immediately collapse as it has done in recent years.

Fortunately, their guns have stayed healthy, and they’ve added the likes of Duryea and Ebert to the mix, releasing Gleeson into the midfield, where he has led from the front.

Old Scotch have some stars of their own, with none shining more brightly in recent times than Will Clark, who booted six second-half goals to sink St Kevin’s last weekend. With young ruck Will Verge holding his own around the ground, Clark has been able to swing forward with great effect, and his influence will have a major impact on this game one way or the other.

Clark has formed an effective partnership with fellow Big V rep Angus Jones, who has been battling a niggly hamstring, as well as Quinn Spencer, who has bobbed up to boot 15 goals so far this season, including three 3-goal hauls, indicating that he can be dangerous when he gets the right match-up and circumstances.

The 4-game winning streak that has revived the Cardinals’ season has correlated with their best attacking month of the year, and that will need to continue against the potent Blues’ attack, which has been booting goals for fun all season long.

We know Scotch is more of an Intercept team than a Contested Ball team. Led by star interceptor Charlie Cormack, alongside Will Townsend, Jack Brown and Harry Dixon, the Cards are the best in the business at turning opposition attacks around, then playing a high-paced, uncontested possession game that delivers it to their forwards lace out on the lead.

The Blues (who are supreme interceptors themselves) will need to be mindful of that when targeting the likes of Stewart, Grimley and Townson. A wayward kick Inside 50 can come back quickly with interest against the Cardinals.

It’s two in-form teams head-to-head. The Blues are hunting their ninth straight win, while the Cards are chasing their fifth in a row, having knocked off Top 4 teams Old Brighton and St Kevin’s in their past two starts.

Will the Bluebaggers retain their hold on top spot, or will the 2024 champions keep their 2026 hopes alive and set themselves up for another almighty late charge at September by skittling three finals contenders in a row?

Don’t miss what promises to be a fantastic contest, LIVE & FREE on VAFA.com.au, as well as Kommunity TV from 1.55pm Saturday!

It will be Part 2 of our Uni Blues KTV Double-Header, which kicks off with the Blues’ Holmesglen Under 19 Premier team hosting St Kevin’s from 11.35 – LIVE & EXCLUSIVE to KTV!

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ST KEVIN’S vs UNIVERSITY BLACKS (Sat 2pm – TH King Oval & Kommunity TV)

St Kevin’s have been one of the pacesetters all season long and arrive at Round 14 safely tucked away in third spot, two games behind the leaders, one game ahead of Old Brighton, and most importantly, three games (plus percentage) ahead of the fifth-placed Cardinals.

Their final five home & away matches are a mixed bag – clashes against teams out of finals contention (Blacks, Bloods & T’s), plus a couple of late blockbusters (Xavs Rd.16 and Blues Rd.18). So, banking a couple of wins against the lower teams now can effectively wrap up their finals spot and avoid them having to beat one of the Top 2 teams later to make it.

SKOB has been decimated by unavailability in recent weeks, but it will get most of its big names back over the next few weeks, starting this weekend, which will come as some welcome relief for coach Anthony Lynch, who knows just how dangerous Uni Blacks can be.

The Blacks were at their best against Caulfield last week, kicking their highest score since 2022 and their biggest in the top flight since 2017. Scoring has been their Achilles heel in recent seasons, so if an accomplished forward like Matt Grocott (who booted 6 last week) can maintain that sort of form, Dale Bower’s team goes from awkward to dangerous very quickly.

Can they keep the scoreboard ticking over again this week? They may need to, given they are facing the competition’s #1 Attack, averaging 100 points per game.

Mind you, SKOB was held to their lowest score of the season by the Cardinals last week (8.12 (60)), after being held goalless in the second half until 12 minutes into the final term. But that was an attack without their 4 match-winning forwards – Jacob Koschitzke, Jack Behnk, Sam Tucker or Doug Kerr.

That quartet has booted 96 goals between them and is averaging around 3 goals per game each. Dale Bower will be keen to get his hands on the St Kevin’s team sheet to see if any of them return this week, because that immediately changes the game.

Uni Blacks haven’t won at TH King since 2012, when both teams were in Premier B. Since then, SKOB have successfully defended their home turf from the Blacks on 5 consecutive occasions.

However, TH King hasn’t been quite the fortress in 2026 as in previous seasons. St Kevin’s are 3-2 at home, but two of their wins were by 10 points after hanging on late against a charging Cardinals in Round 6, and a nailbiting 3-point win over Caulfield a fortnight ago.

Given Blacks were the team to finally snap Old Brighton’s 20-game winning streak at home in Round 4 this year, the venue should hold no great fears for the visitors. In fact, they might actually revel in the challenge.

As competitive as Blacks have been all year, the reality is that they only sit one game (plus 19%) clear of the drop zone, so their primary objective remains avoiding relegation.

They have 3 serious challenges in the next 4 starts – SKOB this week, then Old Xavs in Round 15, and Old Scotch in Round 17.

Their other two matches will be against teams who are currently just one game behind them (Old Trinity Round 16 and Old Haileybury R18), so those fixtures will be fraught with danger should they not be able to find a win against one of the teams above them.

This is a big opportunity for Blacks to kick clear of the drop zone and buy themselves a bit of breathing room.

Can they capitalise on SKOB’s absences and leave TH King with the 4 points for the first time in 14 years, or will St Kevin’s bounce back and bank another victory that keeps them in the Top 2 race?

Find out LIVE & EXCLUSIVE on Kommunity TV from 1.55pm Saturday!

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OLD HAILEYBURY vs ST BERNARD’S (Saturday 2pm – Princes Park)

It’s a critical game in the race to avoid relegation, as the 8^th placed Bloods (4-9) host the last placed Snowdogs (2-11) at Princes Park.

Like many teams, Old Haileybury are waiting for the cavalry to return, with almost a full team of players unavailable in recent weeks. Uni Blues took advantage last week, holding them scoreless until the third quarter on their way to a 97-point thumping, which halted the momentum and buzz the Bloods’ incredible come-from-behind 5-point win over Old Trinity had generated the previous week.

Conversely, St Bernard’s form line coming into this one is relatively promising, despite being on a 6-game losing streak.

The Dogs led Old Scotch at the last change before being pipped by 4 points, then were within 7 points of Blacks at the 30-minute mark of the final term, before last week storming home to hit the front late against the league-leading Old Xavs before ending up on the wrong end of a 4-point thriller.

Throw in a 6-point loss to Old Trinity back in Round 4, and Steve Alessio’s team has been much more troublesome than their win-loss record might suggest.

So, you can mount a solid case for this to be a winnable away game for the Dogs, which is something they haven’t managed to achieve since they defeated the winless De La Salle in Round 6 of 2025. Since then, they’ve lost 12 consecutive away games by an average of 46 points.

But it’s do-or-die time for the Doggies. They enter Round 14 two games (plus 7%) away from safety – and that safety right now is in the form of Old Haileybury.

Win this game, and they close the gap to the Bloods to a single game. But lose, and they will fall three games (plus percentage) behind with 4 to play. Given their run home includes matches against the Blues and Old Brighton, that’s a deep hole they don’t want to find themselves in.

So, where might this game be won or lost?

Neither of these teams has been winning enough possession (Disposals: St Bernard’s #9 & Old Haileybury #10) or generating sufficient Inside 50s (Old Haileybury #8 & St Bernard’s 9) to kick winning scores. So, the team that is more effective at stringing together possession chains to feed their forwards might take the win.

The numbers suggest the Snowdogs might have a slight edge on the inside, but ball security is also going to be key in this one. These are the two loosest teams with the ball in 2026 (Disposal Efficiency: St Bernard’s #9 & Old Haileybury #10), so whoever commits the fewest indefensible turnovers will also be at an advantage, given they are also the two worst at hitting up targets when exiting Defensive 50.

There is very little between them at either end of the ground. Old Haileybury are #8 Attack (av.72.8pts), and St Bernard’s #9 (69.6pts). Defensively, there’s less than a goal between them also (Bloods concede 94ppg and the Dogs 99ppg).

Both have played in numerous tight games this season, with mixed results. The Bloods are 2-2 in games decided by a goal or less, while the Snowdogs are 1-3.

It might just come down to who retains their composure and executes their plan better in the big moments, with so much on the line.

Who returns to the winners’ list? Find out from 2pm Saturday at Princes Park.

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OLD TRINITY vs CAULFIELD GRAMMARIANS (Saturday 2pm – Daley Oval)

The final game of the round is another that will directly impact the relegation race, as the 9^th ranked T’s (4-9) host the 7^th ranked Fields (5-8) at Daley Oval.

These two teams met in last season’s Premier B Grand Final, with Old Trinity triumphantly rising to William Buck Premier Men’s and starting their 2026 campaign in sizzling fashion, winning 4 of their first 5 to sit inside the Top 4 and loom as a surprise packet.

The Fields were the opposite. Having lost last year’s premiership decider, they stumbled out of the gates in 2026, losing 4 of their first 5 to shape as an early relegation contender.

But since Round 6, the script has completely flipped.

The T’s lost a couple of key players, and the season got big on them in a hurry. They arrive at Round 14 on an 8-game losing streak that has seen them slide all the way to ninth position, and in desperate need of a win that can help pull them out of their nosedive before it’s too late.

That victory looked to be within reach last weekend, when they played their best footy in a couple of months to lead reigning premiers Old Brighton by 27 points early in the third term. However, they were held goalless for the remainder of the afternoon as the Tonners booted the final 6 goals of the game to get out of jail and deny Old Trinity 4 premiership points that would have lifted them back out of the drop zone.

As it currently sits, the T’s are 1.86% behind Old Haileybury, and a game plus percentage behind Uni Blacks and Caulfield, two teams they meet in the next 3 weeks.

That’s a double-edged sword. Win those games, and they close the gap. But lose, and it’s an ‘8-point game’ as the Blacks and/or Fields disappear off into the distance.

The first of those ‘8-pointers’ comes now.

Meanwhile, the Fields will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Blacks last week that effectively ended their finals hopes in their first season back in the top tier. Caulfield is now 3 games (plus 40%) behind Old Brighton with 5 games to play, so while it’s still mathematically possible, it’s highly unlikely.

Like the T’s, their greater concern is avoiding relegation, and if they drop this game, they might find themselves back in the drop zone for the first time since Round 5, when they were at the bottom of the ladder at 1-4.

Since then, they have been one of the ‘feel-good’ stories of the Premier Men’s season, going 4-4 and showing incredible grit, resilience and spirit to climb out of that deep hole and be challenging for a Top 4 berth. Two of those 4 losses were by 1 point (Old Haileybury) and 3 points (St Kevin’s), so they’ve been highly competitive in 6 of their last 8 matches.

But when you look a little closer at who they have beaten, it reveals that the Fields are roughly where they belong on the ladder, given 4 of their 5 victories have been over the bottom 4 teams besides themselves, with Old Brighton their only ‘scalp’ of note.

So, these next two match-ups (Old Trinity and St Bernard’s) assume even greater importance, given they face Old Scotch, Uni Blues and Old Brighton to finish.

If they can take care of business against the T’s and Snowdogs (the two teams currently in the relegation zone), they may be able to open up a large enough gap to provide some breathing room in the final few rounds and not be playing under the extreme direct pressure of ‘win, or you’re gone.’

These two teams win the fewest Clearances of any in the competition, although the numbers suggest the Fields will win the contested battle around the ground in general play. However, the T’s may end up with more overall Disposals, given their propensity to chip the ball around and rack up big numbers of uncontested marks once they gain possession.

Caulfield have tended to kick more, while the T’s have handballed more. So while the T’s average more Disposals, they average less Inside 50s, and this lack of return on effort has been a major challenge for them all season.

So, it was pleasing to see Old Trinity have a bit more balance in their game last week against Old Brighton. They won more Clearances than in any match since Round 2, and their 23 Intercept Marks were their second-highest tally of the year. Importantly, they hit targets on 67% of their Forward 50 entries – their best return of the season.

They’ll be targeting more growth in those aspects against the Fields, which would let them attack straight out of stoppages or counter-attack off turnovers, then find the likes of Dom Payman within range of goal.

If we know anything about Caulfield, it’s that they will hang in and keep fighting all afternoon. They make teams beat them, which is a great sign in a young side. Coach Paul Satterley prides himself on coaching teams that refuse to quit, and this one, in the main, has fought to the final siren all year.

Caulfield average 8 points per game more than Trinity at their attacking end, but concede 4 points per game more defensively.

So, the numbers suggest this could well be another thriller.

Who will hold their nerve and collect these 4 precious premiership points?

Find out from 2pm Saturday at Daley Oval.

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WILLIAM BUCK PREMIER MEN’S – ROUND 14

Saturday, August 1 – 2pm:

Old Xaverians             vs            Old Brighton                       1.45pm – VAFA TV & SEN app

University Blues         vs             Old Scotch                          1.55pm – VAFA TV & Kommunity TV

St Kevin’s                   vs             University Blacks               1.55pm – Kommunity TV

Old Haileybury           vs             St Bernard’s                          

Old Trinity                  vs             Caulfield Grammarians