The desperate lunge to avoid relegation continues… William Buck Premier Men’s Round 15 Preview

The jostling for position in William Buck Premier Men’s continues to intensify by the week, and as we enter the final month of the season, the stakes are rising – particularly in the race to avoid relegation, with 4 of the 5 matches to directly impact the battle to avoid the slide to Premier B at season’s end.

Let’s take a closer look at what promises to be another fascinating Saturday afternoon:

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OLD BRIGHTON vs UNIVERSITY BLUES (Sat 2pm – Brighton Beach: KTV & SEN app)

Our VAFA SEN Match of the Day call team will be at Brighton Beach Oval for the Top 4 blockbuster between the reigning premiers and the league-leaders.

University Blues are on a 9-game winning streak that has seen them snatch premiership favouritism away from Old Xavs, and they will roll into Brighton fearing no one, but well aware that the Tonners are getting stronger by the week as their troops return in preparation for September.

Old Brighton seems to be coming out the other side of ‘Tullamarine Flu’ season as players return from European sojourns, and coach Marcel Bruin tells us every year that it’s not simply a case of players walking back into the club and immediately being 100% ready to perform at their peak. It generally takes a few weeks to get to full speed and intensity, and last week’s gritty 11-point win over Xavs at Toorak Park was the first clear sign that the Tonners are back on an upward trajectory.

The reigning champs enter the weekend in fourth, three games plus 30% clear of Old Scotch in fifth – so effectively, four games clear with four to play.

One more victory makes September a certainty, but this weekend is more about testing themselves against the competition’s new benchmark and potentially sending them (and the other likely finalists) a message. They’ve beaten St Kevin’s and Old Xavs, if they can salute this weekend, they’ll head into September with a full house of wins against the other 3 finalists.

But the same goes for Uni Blues, who were 1-8 against the Tonners, SKOB and Xavs over the past 14 months until they stood up and made a statement with their 39-point win over Xavs in Round 12.

A victory over Old Brighton at home would be another hurdle cleared, given they’ve lost their last 5 meetings against the Tonners, stretching back to Round 10 of 2023. They’ll then face St Kevin’s in the final round and get the chance to end their 4-game losing streak to SKOB as well.

These milestones would rank as significant achievements for Matt Smith’s team, as they continue to add layers to their first genuine premiership tilt since 2023, when they finished second and bowed out on Preliminary Final Day.

So how do they match up? The Blues have a slight edge in Attack, ranked #3 (95.2ppg) vs #4 (86.3ppg), while their Defence is also higher rated: #1 (62ppg) vs #3 (71.7ppg).

The Tonners’ defence has been their cornerstone for much of the year, as their forward line struggled to replace Will Lewis, who skyrocketed off the back of being a premiership hero to play AFL for the Western Bulldogs this year.

They went 7 weeks without topping the ton, until last week, when we saw what the future of the Old Brighton forward line might be: goals by committee, with young guns Joey Campigli and Charlie Richardson booting 3 apiece, supported by 3 from star midfielder Harry Hill.

Fortunately, their defence has kept them in games while they’ve been piecing their attack together, and this week, they face the ultimate challenge – trying to stop leading goalkicker James Stewart (64 goals), while also containing Sam Grimley (32), Ben Townson (24), James Curran and Charlie Cotter (13 apiece).

Stewart’s ability to kick big bags of goals can’t be ignored. When he gets hot, he puts teams to the sword with ruthless efficiency. This season alone, he’s booted 11 goals (Old Haileybury), 9 goals (St Bernard’s), and 6 goals three times (Old Trinity and Old Scotch twice).

He’s extremely hard to contain one-on-one, especially on the lead if he’s getting good quality supply, so the Tonners will focus on trying to harass the Blues’ ball-carriers and pressure them into messy entries Inside 50.

Ideally, the hosts get first hands on the footy around stoppages so they can control the game from the inside. But even if they don’t, they are the #1 Intercept team in the comp, giving them the ability to set up behind the ball and cut off the Blues’ forays before they reach Stewart and Co.

So much of their recent success has been due to their ability to pressure, force turnover and then punish the other way.

It promises to be a revealing afternoon by the bay!

Watch the big game LIVE on Kommunity TV & enjoy our award-winning VAFA SEN Match of the Day coverage on the SEN app from 1.45pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

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UNIVERSITY BLACKS vs OLD XAVERIANS (Saturday 2pm – Melbourne Uni Oval: VAFA TV)

We begin our deep dive into the relegation race contenders with the clash between Uni Blacks and Old Xavs at Melbourne Uni.

Xavs were the raging flag favourites as recently as three weeks ago, when they were riding a 9-game winning streak. However, losses to Uni Blues and Old Brighton in the past three starts have the Red & Black looking to stabilise their season and regain some form in preparation for September.

The situation is even more pressing for the Blacks, who sit seventh, but are just half-a-game clear of the drop zone in the race to avoid relegation. They will face the two teams immediately below them – Old Trinity and Old Haileybury – in the coming weeks, so the opportunity to potentially buy themselves some breathing space by collecting the 4 points here could ultimately prove extremely valuable and take some pressure off.

Despite their 5-9 record, the Blacks are one of the most dangerous teams in the competition, due to their unpredictability. You’re never quite sure which Blacks team is going to turn up on any given day, and when they’re on, they’re more than capable of troubling any team in the competition.

They ended Old Brighton’s 20-game winning streak at home in Round 4, got closer to Xavs (17 points) than anyone had for quite a while in Round 8, pushed the Blues (14 points) in Round 10, and then just fell short of Brighton (3 points) in Round 11 and St Kevin’s (3 points) last week.

So, Xavs coach Dan Donati will be paying no attention to the ladder whatsoever. He knows that if the Blacks get a sniff – particularly at Melbourne Uni – his team are going to have to roll up their sleeves, get down and dirty on the heavy track, and grind out four quarters of high-pressure football.

Xavs have the edge in firepower (#2 Attack vs #7), but the difference between the Defences is much closer (#2 vs #5), and it’s the Blacks’ ability to stifle the top teams and prevent them from rising up through the gears that has seen them either defeat or stretch the finalists all season long.

Last week, they held the #1 Attack in the competition (St Kevin’s) to just 54 points – their lowest score of the season. So, if Dale Bower has his way, we might witness another intense low-scoring, high-pressure nailbiter.

It’s not that Blacks can’t turn on the scoring tap; they kicked 18.17 (125) vs Caulfield the week before, when Matty Grocott cut loose with 6 goals, and we know that Xavs’ defence is missing some key soldiers at the moment.

But shootouts are ill-advised against the top teams, and the last time these two teams met, the goals were flowing freely in the first half (it was Blacks leading 8.3 to 7.3), and they ultimately couldn’t keep pace with Xavs, who finished with 14.9 (93) to roll them by 17 points.

Charlie Macisaac kicked 6 goals that day, and he’ll be keen on another decent haul, given he’s booted just 8 goals from his past 5 matches, compared to 27 in the 5 before that.

Will Xavs make a statement and get back on track as they prepare for September, or will the Blacks finally get that Top 4 scalp that has repeatedly slipped through their fingers over the past couple of months?

Find out, LIVE & FREE on VAFA.com.au from 1.55pm Saturday!

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OLD SCOTCH vs OLD TRINITY (Saturday 2pm – Camberwell Sportsground & VAFA TV)

Old Scotch’s late surge towards September hit a brick wall last week when the league-leading Blues dealt their finals hopes a mortal blow. That 67-point loss left the Cardinals 3 games plus 30% behind Old Brighton with 4 to play. Still mathematically possible, but highly unlikely. Mind you, the Cards do ‘highly unlikely’ better than anyone!

But for now, their focus is to clear the drop zone and, at the very least, be able to enjoy the last couple of weeks of the season without the stress of fighting to avoid relegation. Currently fifth, they are only a game-and-a-half clear of danger – and they FACE that danger this weekend: Old Trinity.

If the T’s can find a way to snap their 9-game winless run, they would close to within just half-a-game of the Cards with 3 to play, dragging Old Scotch down into the drop zone scrap.

There’s no doubt that Old Trinity’s form is on the rise. Since the 115-point belting they copped from SKOB in Round 10, their last 4 performances have been tracking in the right direction: 20pt loss to the Blues, 5pt loss to the Bloods, 11pt loss to the Tonners and then the draw last weekend against Caulfield.

They were highly competitive in all of those contests and could easily have won at least 3 of them. Their clearance numbers have improved significantly, and last week they converted a +11 Clearance Differential against the Fields into +9 Inside 50s – their best return in that category since Round 3.

With key forward Dom Payman back in the line-up, they look far more potent Inside 50; last week against Caulfield saw them register their Best Forward 50 entry ratio of the season (hitting more targets when going Inside 50). They went at 59% and held the Fields to just 42%.

For a team ranked LAST for Inside 50s, the ability to find a target who then converts is even more critical against the #1 Intercept team in the comp.

Old Trinity MUST avoid kicking in Charlie Cormack’s general vicinity at all costs, and when they DO manage to get around or over the Scotch interceptors, they have to nail their shots at goal. Finishing has been an ongoing challenge, given the T’s rank #8 Goal Accuracy, compared to Old Scotch #3.

Given the numbers suggest Old Trinity may generate fewer Inside 50 opportunities than the Cards, they have to hit their forward targets and then nail their shots to keep scoreboard pressure on the hosts, who tend to do both those things very well.

From an Old Scotch perspective, their upswing in form coincided with the ability to control possession and territory more via their uncontested game. The Cardinals have lost Contested Possession in 5 of their last 6 starts, but their elite Intercept game allows to win the ball back around the ground, then play an effective ‘keepings off’ game to ultimately deliver it to their forward targets.

This might be where the game is won or lost.

The T’s also like to play keepings off, but the difference is that the Cards manage to move the ball forward more effectively, while the T’s can get stuck chipping it around without taking territory and getting it into a scoring position.

They are going to need to be brave and precise against the Cards.

Play too conservatively, and Old Scotch will build their defensive wall and pick you off when you eventually try to launch it Inside 50.

But try to go too fast, and the Cards can punish you on turnover.

Finding that balance in ball movement is going to be vital for the T’s. The numbers suggest they will win plenty of first possession, but ball security, while also challenging the Cards’ defence, may set the tone for the entire match.

Get that right, and they can kick a winning score.

But be too conservative and they either won’t score. Be too aggressive and they’ll get scored on the other way.

It promises to be a fascinating tactical battle. Watch it play out LIVE & FREE on VAFA TV from 1.55pm Saturday!

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ST KEVIN’S vs OLD HAILEYBURY (Saturday 2pm – TH King Oval)

This game will impact both the Top 2 and the relegation race, as SKOB plays host to the Bloods at TH King.

St Kevin’s had to grind and scrap for four quarters last week against the Blacks, but that gritty, hard-fought 3-point win (their second in three weeks), locked in their 8^th consecutive William Buck Premier Men’s finals series – an incredible achievement in such an even, high-quality competition.

So now it becomes all about preparing for September for Anthony Lynch’s men. They’ve been down on troops over the past month, but have kept finding ways to win and keep winning. They are steadily getting big names back each week as they look to rediscover their best form and reach the finals in peak condition.

Their last meeting with the Bloods was all one-way traffic as they put them to the sword to win by 91 points, but could have won by 20 goals or more, given they kicked 17.25 that afternoon.

‘Plugger’ Lynch knows that the stakes are much higher for Old Haileybury this time because the Bloods are right in the middle of a relegation battle. 

Old Haileybury currently sits half-a-game ahead of Old Trinity but will start as outsiders in all four of their remaining matches: St Kevin’s (Away), Old Brighton (Away), Old Xavs (Home) & Uni Blacks (Away).

So, if Old Trinity manages to find a win in their run home, the Bloods will slide into the drop zone, and the T’s run home is far less difficult (at least on paper): Old Scotch (A), Uni Blacks (H), St Kevin’s (H) & St Bernard’s (A).

Hence, it’s likely that the Bloods need to find at least one upset win (and maybe even two if the T’s win twice) to survive in Premier Men’s.

Old Haileybury’s form coming into this clash with SKOB has been patchy.

They’ve gone 3-3 over their past six starts, with strong performances resulting in three close wins against Caulfield (1pt), Trinity (5pts), and St Bernard’s (2pts), along with a hard-fought loss to Old Xavs (15pts) and two heavy defeats to Old Scotch (42) and Uni Blues (97).

The Old Xavs game is the one coach Guy Martyn can revisit for inspiration. That was a strong performance against a genuine contender, which is what they need now. Scores were level at three-quarter time that day, before Xavs kicked the only two goals of the final quarter to grind out a 15-point victory.

Xavs dominated possession that day (+115 Disposals) thanks to clearance and ground ball control. However, that only resulted in 6 more Inside 50s as the Bloods threw a couple of extra defenders behind the ball, repeatedly intercepting and then hitting Xavs on the counter.

At one stage in the second term, Old Haileybury booted 4 goals in 6 minutes on the counterpunch to lead by 18 points at half time. But they failed to capitalise on their chances in the final term and ultimately came up short, despite being within just a few points approaching time-on.

It will be interesting to see whether Guy dusts off that playbook and throws a similar look at SKOB this week, knowing that St Kevin’s boasts the #1 Attack in the competition (97 points per game). He’ll have learnt a lot by watching how Blacks went about restricting them to just 54 points at TH King last week, and we’ll see what SKOB learned from that as well.

Can they open up the game and let their match-winning forwards go to work, or will the Bloods repeat their hardcore ‘defence first’ approach and turn the game into another thriller?

Given that both these teams have repeatedly prevailed in tight games in recent times, they’ll both fancy their chances of pulling out a win if things are tight come the last quarter.

If the Bloods can find a way to get over the line once again, they will take a critical step towards safety (particularly if the T’s fall to Old Scotch). But if St Kevin’s prevail, this relegation race might get a whole lot tighter!

Find out from 2pm Saturday at TH King Oval.

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ST BERNARD’S vs CAULFIELD GRAMMARIANS (Saturday 2pm – Snake Pit)

The final game of the round is another mouthwatering match-up that will directly affect the relegation race, as the last-placed Snowdogs (2-12) host the 6^th-placed Fields (5-8-1) at the Snake Pit.

The Snowdogs are 2-4 at home, with their four losses including an impressive performance in their last home game where they fought back in the final quarter, only to fall 4 points short of the then league-leading Xavs.

In fact, their last five matches have shown steady improvement and a real competitive edge that has troubled every team they’ve faced. 

They led Old Scotch by 8 points at the last change in Round 10, before ultimately falling 4 points short at Scotch College. They were in the game until midway through the final quarter against both SKOB and Blacks, before losing heartbreakers over the past fortnight to Old Xavs (4 points) and Old Haileybury (2 points).

Coach Steve Alessio is proud of his players’ ongoing effort despite repeated setbacks, recognising that their chance to escape the relegation zone depends on taking their key moments when they arise. 

Poor turnovers and costly misses caused by fundamental mistakes have hindered the Dogs all season and undone much of their good work. Can they fix those errors, make smarter decisions, and then execute under pressure to revive their campaign?

It’s now or never for them.

They sit three games from safety (plus 7%) with 4 to play. They host Caulfield this week, then face Uni Blues (Away), Old Brighton (Home) and Old Trinity (Home).  Their two most winnable games (on paper at least) are this one against the Fields, then the T’s in the final round.

Given Old Haileybury’s brutal run home, if they can knock over the Fields and T’s, then pinch one of the games against the Blues and Brighton, they could find themselves making up that 3-game gap if the Bloods don’t win again.

Meanwhile, Caulfield Grammarians may sit sixth, but they’re not safe from relegation either.

They are only one game (plus 5.35%) ahead of Old Trinity, and given their final three games are against Old Scotch (Home), Uni Blues (Away) and Old Brighton (Home), the four points on offer this weekend are vital.

Lose, and they could find themselves in the drop zone by Saturday night, with that tough run home to come.

The Fields have gone 4-4-1 over the past 9 weeks, but remain in peril due to their 1-4 start.

The numbers suggest that possession will be evenly shared, with St Bernard’s maybe winning a fraction more contested footy. They will want to tidy up their exits from clearance to fully capitalise on their ability to win first possession.

In fact, tidying up ball use might be on both coaches’ whiteboards, given they rank equal 9^th for Disposal Efficiency this season (only Old Haileybury has been worse). No surprise that they are also the two least effective teams at finding a target when entering Forward 50.

However, both teams now have key forwards capable of taking advantage of quality supply.

Julian Dobosz’s return has made an enormous difference to Caulfield’s front half, and his 3 goals last week (including the 500^th of his illustrious career) played a key part in them securing 2 precious premiership points.

At the other end, Matthew Watson almost won St Bernard’s the game with 3 goals in 3 minutes late in the final term against the Bloods.

All either of these big-bodied veterans needs is quick delivery and a kick to their advantage as they thunder out on the lead. They will do the rest – you just have to feed them.

But that’s been easier said than done for the two lowest-ranked teams for Marks Inside 50 this season.

From St Bernard’s perspective, that says more about their volume of supply; they’re also last for total Inside 50s, so Watson and co. simply haven’t had enough opportunities.

However, Caulfield are #4 Inside 50s, so their problem has been more about the quality of delivery and having key focal points to kick to – the second of these challenges rectified by Dobosz’s recent return.

They are the two grittiest, scrappiest, never-say-die teams in the competition. Neither of them will back down if momentum starts to swing against them, so there’s every chance that, after a few ebbs and flows along the way, this one goes deep into the final quarter once again.

Who steps up and owns the big moments to win the 4 points?

Find out on Saturday from 2pm at St Bernard’s College.

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WILLIAM BUCK PREMIER MEN’S – ROUND 15

Saturday, August 8 – 2pm:

Old Brighton                  vs       University Blues              1.45pm – Kommunity TV & SEN app

Old Scotch                     vs        Old Trinity                       1.55pm – VAFA TV

University Blacks          vs         Old Xaverians                 1.55pm – VAFA TV

St Kevin’s                      vs         Old Haileybury                     

St Bernard’s                   vs         Caulfield Grammarians