The race continues to tighten… William Buck Premier Men’s Round 16 Preview

More pieces of the William Buck Premier Men’s puzzle will drop into place this weekend, featuring a number of games that will directly affect the race to avoid relegation. Safety appears just a win away for some, while others are far more desperate for the four premiership points on offer.

Plus, we look forward to one of the Games of the Year as two ferocious rivals go head-to-head in a Top 4 blockbuster!

Let’s take a closer look at another critical Saturday afternoon:

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OLD XAVERIANS vs ST KEVIN’S (Saturday 2pm – Toorak Park: VAFA TV & SEN app)

Two of the VAFA’s fiercest enemies collide in a showdown that could decide the double chance come September.

Old Xaverians enter the weekend one game (plus just under 9%) ahead of SKOB in the race for second spot, which delivers a ticket into the Second Semi-Final and the double chance that comes with it.

Both teams are safely into September, so from here it’s about jostling for position and trying to avoid what, at this stage, looms as a cut-throat First Semi against reigning premiers Old Brighton.

It’s a mouthwatering match-up between the league’s two deadliest attacks, with St Kevin’s #1 (99ppg) and Old Xavs #2 (98ppg).

Xavs are led by the competition’s #2 spearhead, Charlie Macisaac, who has enjoyed a superb season, booting 52 goals, including 3 in the opening round against SKOB. He is surrounded by a strong supporting cast, including the likes of Ed Delany & Wade Brusnahan (21 goals), plus Charlie Knott (17).

SKOB’s model is slightly different, featuring multiple focal points, any of which can kick a bag on any given day. This flexibility has been crucial, especially since several have been unavailable for long periods during the season, during which others have stepped up to keep the ball sailing regularly through the big sticks.

Jacob Koschitzke & Sam Tucker lead the way on 28 goals, but Jacob hasn’t been seen since Round 12, and Sam since Round 9. Their combined absence saw SKOB’s strikepower wane a little for a couple of weeks, but they’ve managed to swing the magnets around and still boot winning scores, with the likes of Jack Behnk (22 goals in 8 games) providing a dangerous target capable of terrorising opposition defences.

Last week, Anthony Lynch threw ever-reliable defender Ethan Phillips forward after half-time, and, despite having kicked just 3 goals in his previous 24 VAFA appearances, the ‘Big Easy’ FOUND it easy up forward, booting 4 goals in just over a quarter, providing SKOB with yet ANOTHER potential option.

Defensively, Old Xavs hold a slight edge, ranked #2 (69 pts against) vs SKOB #4 (75 pts against), so Conversion will be key.

Old Xavs are #1 for Goal Accuracy this season, while St Kevin’s are ranked last. SKOB have kicked more behinds than goals in 6 of their last 8 starts, so they will need to take their opportunities around goal this week. In their Round 1 clash, they kicked 8.16 to Xavs’ 13.12; so only 1 fewer scoring shot for a 26-point loss.

The ruck battle will be an absolute beauty, with powerhouse rucks Billy Coates and Alec Spralja going head-to-head in the middle.

No team wins more Ground Balls, Contested Possessions or Clearances than St Kevin’s, so if they can continually get first hands on the ball and control the game from there. Xavs love to possess the ball (#1 Disposals, Marks, Uncontested Marks & Disposal Efficiency), so those uncontested possession chains are another area SKOB will look to disrupt.

They must try to prevent Xavs from getting the ball from the inside to the outside, as no-one retains possession more coming out of stoppage than Xavs.

If they are allowed to start racking up a big possession count that sees the likes of Lane, Fisher and Stavrou filling their boots, good things tend to follow for the Red & Black.

St Kevin’s play a more direct style, as evidenced by them being #3 Disposals, but #1 Inside 50s. They don’t mind kicking to a contest, and the aerial battle will be one to watch, given these are the Top 2 Contested Marking teams in the competition, and the Top 2 for Marks Inside 50. Who ultimately controls the skies might prove decisive.

If Old Xavs salute, they will all but wrap up the double chance. But if SKOB can upset them at Toorak Park, the race for second spot will be on in earnest!

Enjoy this blockbuster LIVE & FREE on VAFA.com.au with our award-winning VAFA SEN Match of the Day coverage also available on the SEN app from 1.45pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

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OLD BRIGHTON vs OLD HAILEYBURY (Saturday 2pm – Brighton Beach Oval: Kommunity TV)

Two teams with very different objectives clash at Brighton Beach Oval.

A win for Old Brighton would officially punch their finals ticket and allow them to focus on fine-tuning their September premiership defence without the stresses of qualifying.

A win for Old Haileybury would lift them out of the drop zone, given that the two teams immediately above them (Old Trinity & Uni Blacks) meet on Saturday afternoon. It’s a golden opportunity for the Bloods to make an early move in this 3-week sprint to safety.

Their recent form line suggests they are a chance, given they’ve gone Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss over the past 5 matches.

Their two victories in that stretch have been thrillers: 5 points over Old Trinity in Round 12, and 2 points over St Bernard’s in Round 14, while their losses have been heavy against the better teams (42 points Old Scotch, 97 points Uni Blues, 48 points St Kevin’s).

However, despite last week’s loss to SKOB ultimately blowing out to 8 goals, Bloods’ coach Guy Martyn can take some confidence and belief from the fact that his side was within 16 points approaching time-on in the final term. It was a much more competitive performance than the final score suggested.

In fact, Old Haileybury led the premiership contender by 23 points midway through the second term after a fine early display of intensity and pressure.

Unfortunately, they weren’t able to sustain it all afternoon and eventually fell, but it was enough to remind the Bloods that their best football is good enough to more than trouble the best teams. Their challenge is to deliver it for longer.

Tonners’ coach Marcel Bruin has been around football long enough to be wary of a team in Old Haileybury’s position. He knows they will come out breathing fire as they did against SKOB, and will be reassuring his players to remain focused, stick to their own tasks and trust that they can outlast the Bloods as St Kevin’s did.

The breeze invariably plays a role at Brighton Beach, as it did last week when the Blues rode it to victory in the final quarter. So, the toss might be vital. If the Bloods can harness the wind early and kick out to a handy lead, they can look to pressure the Tonners and force them to chase the game. But we’ve also seen the opposite at Fortress Brighton time and time again, when the home team rockets out of the blocks with the breeze at their back to open a decent advantage of their own.

The time has come for the reigning champs to straighten up and start putting together the consistently excellent football that has carried them to the past two Grand Finals and last year’s flag. They’ve shown glimpses, but their coaching staff are searching for more consistency.

After winning 5 of their first 6 matches, they’ve gone 4-5 since. Their attack remains a work-in-progress, and the impending return of Sam Flockart, who has played the past 3 Reserves games after rupturing his ACL in last season’s Big V clash against Perth, could be exactly the fillip the premiers need. Will it be this week? We’ll have to wait for the team sheet.

Holding teams to beatable scores has been the bigger challenge for the Bloods, who are ranked #7 in Attack (74ppg) but #9 in Defence (96 ppg). They’ve conceded over 100 points in 4 of their past 5 starts, and considering they didn’t allow the ton in any of their first five matches this season, it’s been a major area of regression.

Old Haileybury hasn’t won at Brighton Beach Oval since Round 4, 2013.

This Saturday would be the ideal time to break that drought, because their chances of surviving in Premier Men’s will increase significantly if they do.

Watch the big game LIVE & EXCLUSIVE as Part 3 of our Kommunity TV TONNERS TRIPLE HEADER.

It kicks off from 9.15am Saturday with the top-of-the-table Holmesglen Under 19 Premier clash between Old Brighton & Old Xaverians, followed by the Tonners hosting the Bloods in Premier Men’s Reserves from 11.40am, then the Seniors from 1.55pm!

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OLD TRINITY vs UNIVERSITY BLACKS (Saturday 2pm – Daley Oval)

We may look back in a few weeks’ time and pinpoint this game as one of the keys to who survived the relegation race, and who fell back to Premier B.

Buoyed by their first win in 10 agonisingly long weeks, the T’s jumped from 9^th to 7^th, clearing the drop zone by half-a-game and reviving their chances of staying up in the top flight in 2027.

After starting the season with 4 wins from 5 starts, there was a run of heavy, uncompetitive defeats before the team started to solidify and regroup, putting up an increasingly positive series of performances that felt like the breakthrough win was edging ever closer.

Finally, last week it came via a nail-biting 6-point victory over Old Scotch at Camberwell, but it may as well have been 10 goals, given how great it felt to the long-suffering Old Trinity faithful, who had witnessed the floor drop out of their first season back in William Buck Premier Men’s.

Gun forward Dom Payman may be the single most important player to his team in the entire top flight in 2026. He booted 12 goals during the T’s 4-game winning streak, before missing the next 4 matches due to concussion, coinciding with the team’s nosedive out of the Top 4. They haven’t won without him this season, and his 4 goals against Caulfield were crucial to securing the draw, then his 5 majors last week carried the T’s to the win.

Having said all that, he was held to just a single goal when these teams met back in Round 3 – Old Trinity saluting by 28 points at Melbourne Uni. They led by 46 points early in the third term that day, before the Blacks came storming back within single digits. Donald McDonald’s men ultimately steadied to win by 28 points, with Alex Emery, Christos Manoussakis and Louis Davidson their best.

Manoussakis and Davidson have carried that form all season long, to be the T’s leading ball-winners, averaging 27 and 25 disposals respectively. Add in Hugo McGlashan (25), Sam Phillips (22), Ben Littlefield (21), Campbell Dytor & Luke Teal (both 20), and Old Trinity has a solid collection of players well capable of owning the Sherrin.

But, as we’ve said for much of the year, racking up touches isn’t the challenge – utilising them to get the ball forward and converting into scores is. Ranked #6 in Disposals but last for Inside 50s, the T’s have regularly fallen into the trap of over-possessing for little return.

It’s also a key reason why last week’s performance against Old Scotch was so pleasing.

Starts have been an ongoing problem, and prior to last weekend, they’d kicked just 13 goals in their last 8 first quarters.

But Old Trinity dominated stoppages early, earned a slight territorial advantage and finished their work at the necessary level, banging on 5 goals in their best opening term since Round 2. They finished with 13.10 (88) – their highest score since they last faced the Blacks in Round 3.

Dale Bower’s team need the win every bit as badly as the T’s do. The Blacks have been the most inconsistent and unpredictable side in the competition this season. Capable of troubling anyone with extended periods of excellent football, they’ve struggled to find consistency, both in-game and week-to-week.

Hence, their form line is nigh impossible to follow, but it leaves an overarching sense that they’re a better team than their 5-10 record in 8^th position suggests.

However, there are no premiership ‘style points’ – there are just premiership points – and all that ultimately matters are wins and losses.

Finding the footy is no problem – they’re #2 Disposals, Contested Possessions and Clearances, so they can certainly win their own ball.

Only Xavs are better at finding a teammate when exiting clearances, so they’re good at going from inside to outside, and rank #4 for overall Disposal Efficiency.

In fact, they’re a pretty solid mid-range side in most key statistical categories, which again suggests they should be higher than 8^th position and fighting to avoid relegation.

They’re even ranked #5 in Defence – more than respectable and a base from which you could launch a Top 4 assault.

So, what’s their problem?

They’re #4 for Inside 50s – more than handy – but only #8 in Attack (73ppg).

There it is.

That inability to finish their work has been the difference in a costly series of narrow losses that have derailed their season from potential Top 4 challenger to relegation contestant.

The Blacks have suffered 5 losses by less than 3 goals, including 3-point defeats from premiership contenders Old Brighton and St Kevin’s. Even if they went 3-2 in those 5 games, they’d be sitting one game outside the Top 4 right now.

But Dale Bower knows that none of that can be undone. What’s happened has happened, and fortunately, his team still has their destiny in their own hands, given they play the team immediately ABOVE them this week (Old Trinity) and the team immediately BELOW them (Old Haileybury) in the final round.

So, if they’re good enough to beat the teams around them, they’ll escape relegation. If they don’t, they won’t.

It’s that simple.

Find out who takes a giant step towards safety – 2pm Saturday at Daley Oval!  

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CAULFIELD GRAMMARIANS vs OLD SCOTCH (Saturday 2pm – Glen Huntly Park)

It’s another game between two teams scrapping and clawing to escape the relegation race.

Old Scotch sit fifth and Caulfield sixth, yet both are perilously close to the danger zone.

The Cardinals are 6-9 after their finals hopes were all but dashed in a one-kick thriller against Old Trinity.

It left last year’s Grand Finalists 3 games (plus 25%) behind the Tonners with 3 to play, requiring Old Scotch to win all 3 games and make up the giant percentage deficit while Old Brighton implodes to lose all 3 of their remaining fixtures against Caulfield, Uni Blacks and Old Xavs.

And while finals appear off the table for the Cards, their most pressing issue now sits below them. Such is the incredibly tight nature of William Buck Premier Men’s again this season that one win has spiralled Old Scotch out of the finals race and into the relegation race.

Sure, there are 3 other teams currently looking over their shoulder in a worse position, but as the side mirror of your car warns: “Objects may be closer than they appear,” and suddenly Old Scotch are only one game (plus 13%) ahead of safety.

A win over Caulfield this week would feel like a nice big gulp of antacid for coach Mark Gnatt. Sure, it doesn’t fully resolve all the issues causing the heartburn, but at least it settles you down and offers immediate comfort.

The Fields sit just half-a-game behind the Cards, so the winner of this one will likely own fifth spot on Saturday night.

More importantly, they’ll pick up a game on the loser of Old Trinity-Uni Blacks – the two teams immediately below them. And THAT is where the instant relief will really kick in for the winning coach.

Caulfield have ridden the rollercoaster in their first season back in Premier Men’s. A 1-4 start suggested a relegation race may be in their distant future, before a stirring mid-season rally saw them win 4 of their next 5 to suddenly shape as a potential finals contender.

But just as Fields fans dared to dream, three consecutive losses and a draw squashed their Top 4 hopes and sent them back into the relegation scrap.

The past fortnight saw two golden opportunities to strengthen their position slip through their fingers. They coughed a 19-point three-quarter time lead to draw with Old Trinity, then last week came from 32 points down at half time in the Snake Pit to close within a point at the last change, only to watch the Snowdogs disappear into the distance again.

Now they face three challenging opponents, but this one – Old Scotch – looks the most winnable on paper, given they will finish with an away game against the league-leading Blues, then a visit from the reigning premiers.

Only half-a-game from the drop zone, they could survive without winning another game, but only if the Bloods or Blacks also lost all 3 of theirs, and the Snowdogs don’t win out. Coach Paul Satterley is getting too old for that level of stress though, so he’ll be throwing everything at winning this week and taking a huge leap towards safety.

Victory here would mean that Old Haileybury and Uni Blacks would both have to win at least two of their last 3 to climb over Caulfield, and given they meet in the final round, that equation becomes even more difficult. Plus, Old Trinity would have to win at least one and make up more than 4% on the Fields.

Safety might just be one win away.

But peril is just one loss away.

Catch this high-stakes battle from 2pm Saturday at Glen Huntly Park!

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UNIVERSITY BLUES vs ST BERNARD’S (Saturday 2pm – Melbourne Uni Oval)

The final game of the round sees the top team host the bottom team at Melbourne Uni.

Uni Blues deservedly assumed premiership favouritism from the moment they knocked over Old Xavs by 39 points at Toorak Park in Round 12, and since then, have continued to impress week after week.

On a 10-game winning streak, they were challenged early at Brighton Beach last week, trailing the wind-assisted Tonners by 32 points at quarter-time. But they showed great composure and poise to make the most of the breeze themselves in the second quarter to rocket back into the game, then hold the champs with the wind in the third term, before riding it home to victory in the last.

Matt Smith’s side wants for little, with talent, depth and experience across all zones of the ground. Ranked #3 Attack (97ppg) and #1 Defence (averaging just 64pts against), they have match-winners right across the park.

Defensively, they boast a healthy blend of youth and experience, led by former AFL players Taylor Duryea, Cam O’Shea, and Brett Ebert, alongside Tom Hill and Mitch Lloyd, with the likes of Geordie LaCava, Jack O’Sullivan and Marty Gleeson providing defensive support. It’s been a stellar combination that hasn’t conceded 100 points since Round 6.

Offensively, the league’s leading goalkicker James Stewart attracts much of the attention, given he leads the entire VAFA with 69 goals and is still very much in the #TonWatch frame this season.

But the reality is that he is but one of their forward threats, with the supporting quartet of Sam Grimley, Ben Townson, James Curran and Charlie Cotter combining for a further 89 majors between them.

St Bernard’s coach Steve Alessio knows that if the Bluebaggers get ample supply, his defence will be in for a very long day.

When they met in Round 9, the Snowdogs actually won the Inside 50 battle 52-50. But it was the Blues’ finishing superiority that told the story, as they kicked 14.6 to 6.11 – just 3 more scores for a 43-point win.

Stewart kicked 9 goals that day, and he was the beneficiary of relentless Blues’ pressure and costly Dogs’ turnovers. Incredibly, 13.4 of the Blues’ 14.6 (17 of their 20 scores) came from St Bernard’s turnovers. Just 1.1 came from stoppages as the Blues feasted on Snowdog errors.

If the Dogs are to hang in this game and force it into a late scrap as they did so brilliantly against Xavs in Round 13, they must display better ball security. It’s been an ongoing challenge for the Snowdogs, who are ranked #9 for Disposal Efficiency and hitting targets when entering Forward 50, plus they’re last for hitting a target when exiting Defensive 50 and for Uncontested Marks generally.

The numbers suggest they’ll be competitive around the contest, but they can’t play into the hands of the Blues’ vastly superior intercept game as they did in Round 9. Their own intercept game isn’t in the same league, and they may struggle to win the ball back until it returns to stoppage, as the Blues are #2 Disposal Efficiency – they don’t beat themselves.

It’s time for the Snowdogs to put it all on the line. Last season, they performed The Great Escape, knocking off the Bloods and SKOB in the final two rounds to avoid the hangman’s noose.

If they can pull off the upset of the year this weekend, they’ll keep their slim chances of escaping relegation alive – especially if the Bloods and/or Blacks lose. Those two teams play in the final round, so if the Dogs can remain within striking distance until then, you just never know…

Find out from 2pm Saturday at Melbourne Uni Oval.

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WILLIAM BUCK PREMIER MEN’S – ROUND 16

Saturday, August 15 – 2pm:

Old Xaverians                     vs             St Kevin’s                       1.45pm – VAFA TV & SEN app

Old Brighton                       vs             Old Haileybury               1.55pm – Kommunity TV

Caulfield Grammarians   vs             Old Scotch          

Old Trinity                           vs             University Blacks

University Blues                  vs             St Bernard’s