The relegation race comes down to this… William Buck PREMIER MEN’S – ROUND 18 Preview

We’ve reached the final home & away round of this unpredictable 2026 William Buck Premier Men’s season and, sure enough, the relegation race won’t be finalised until the last day.

The Snowdogs are definitely going down.

But when the dust settles on Saturday night, who will be joining them in Premier B next season?

Let’s take a closer look at what shapes as a gripping final afternoon of home & away footy:

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UNIVERSITY BLACKS vs OLD HAILEYBURY (Sat 2pm – Melb Uni: VAFA.com.au & SEN app)

This is THE key game in ‘Relegation Roulette.’

Old Haileybury will enter the day half-a-game behind Caulfield and Old Trinity, so MUST WIN to have any hope of avoiding relegation.

But if the VAFA app is showing the Bloods in front throughout the afternoon, the pressure is going to mount considerably on the Fields and T’s, who would end up in a percentage battle should they both lose.

Caulfield is currently 4.33% ahead of Trinity, so they have a small buffer, but if the Bloods are up early in the last term, the calculator function on iPhones at Glen Huntly Oval & the Snake Pit will be working overtime!

First things first: Old Haileybury needs to beat a team that secured its own safety last weekend and jumped up to fifth spot in the process – Uni Blacks.

While the Blacks are now safe, they will surely be motivated by this week’s news that coach Dale Bower will finish up his 6-season tenure with the club this weekend.

Blacks had just been flattened by heartbreaking back-to-back Premier B Preliminary Final losses (4 points to Old Carey and 5 points to Old Scotch) when Dale took the reins at the end of 2019, and he successfully galvanised the club.

He led them to the minor premiership in his first full season at the helm – 2022 – when they went undefeated until Grand Final Day, then fell to the Bloods by just 5 points at Elsternwick Park. But they returned to the top-flight and have remained there under Dale’s guidance ever since, finishing 7^th, 7^th, 6^th and are currently 5^th with one game to play.

The Blacks have taken care of the teams below them this season, with their only losses since Round 6 coming against the four finalists.

Their opening two rounds ultimately proved to be costly – defeats at the hands of Old Haileybury and Old Trinity, who both fell away as the season progressed. A fortnight ago, they righted that wrong against the T’s, and now they get the chance to finish their campaign by relegating the team that destroyed their perfect season in that 2002 premiership decider – the Bloods.

Old Haileybury delivered one of the more dramatic comebacks of the season when they stormed home from 22 points down to shock the Blacks with a 7-goal final term at Princes Park in Round 1. However, it’s been a very different-looking line-up in recent times, with a lengthy list of unavailable players making life difficult for the Bloods.

Combine that with the toughest part of their draw, featuring all 4 finalists in their last 5 starts – and it’s been heavy going for Guy Martyn’s young team.

None of that matters now. The NEXT four quarters will determine their fate, and Guy will be spending the week erasing the past from his players’ minds and getting them focusing on ripping into Blacks for two hours on Saturday afternoon.

The numbers suggest Blacks will have considerably more possession and contested ball. In fact, no-one has won more clearances than the Blacks this season, and much of that can be credited to their gun ruck, Sam Conway.

So, for Haileybury to win, they will need to nullify Conway’s influence in and around the stoppages, and pounce on more 50-50 spillages to get them going their way. The Bloods are last for Loose Ball Gets this season, so there’s plenty of room for improvement here.

They aren’t blessed with hulking big key position players, so they are also last for Contested Marks. Their key, therefore, is to avoid kicking to contests as much as possible. They are last for Disposal Efficiency, so much like Carlton has done in the second half of this AFL season, if they can spread more effectively, they can create more wide open options to kick to, which lessens the need for precision with their kicks.

Old Haileybury has largely scored via committee this season, with Cody Goonewardene (19 goals), James Blight & Bailey Yates (17), Charlie Harrop (13), Brede Seccull, Hugo Nosiara & Flynn Gregor (all 12), plus Durras Seccull (10) sharing the load around. That will likely need to be the case again on Saturday.

The Blacks have two dangerous focal points in Matt Grocott (22 goals) and Jack Drummond (18), plus Tom St.Clair (also 18) who regularly bobs up at the deadliest times. The Bloods will need to be on high alert, but their defence needs to start higher up the ground to prevent quality supply from arriving.

Old Haileybury has everything to play for, while the Blacks have their departing coach to play for.

It promises to be a tense afternoon for Bloods fans!

Enjoy this critical clash LIVE & FREE on VAFA.com.au with our award-winning VAFA SEN Match of the Day radio coverage also available on the SEN app from 1.45pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

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ST BERNARD’S vs OLD TRINITY (Saturday 2pm – Snake Pit)

So, with one eye on the VAFA app, Old Trinity head to the dreaded Snake Pit, hoping not to become another victim of one of the league’s most notorious graveyards.

The T’s are 6 points clear of the Snowdogs, and the numbers reinforce that there hasn’t been a lot between the two teams across the course of the season. St Bernard’s averages 4 points per game more in attack, while Old Trinity has been 4 points better in defence!

Outgoing T’s coach Donald McDonald neatly summarised the different paths the two teams have taken this season when he said on Monday: “St Bernard’s have been rock-solid, whereas we had a terrific patch earlier on, but once we lost some key players, it really impacted on our ability to win more games.”

“It is a great challenge for us and a great venue for us to finish our season.”

D-Mac is bang on, as per usual.

Old Trinity flew out of the starting gates, winning 4 of their first 5, including victories over Old Xavs and Uni Blacks, as well as a nail-biting 6-point victory over the Dogs at Daley Oval after St Bernard’s stormed home late.

But they lost spearhead Dom Payman to concussion in Round 7, and the wheels quickly detached from the Trinity wagon, going winless for 9 weeks to plummet down into the relegation race. A draw with Caulfield, then a thrilling 6-point win over Old Scotch gave them some precious breathing room, and they enter this final round half-a-game clear of the Bloods.

St Bernard’s haven’t ridden the rollercoaster quite as much, but much like Collegians last year, will be left to rue a series of missed opportunities that ultimately cost them survival. The Dogs have lost 4 games by a goal or less this season. Flip even two of those into wins, and they’d be sitting safely in seventh right now.

They have been fiercely competitive most weeks, particularly at the Snake Pit, where their three most recent performances have been a 4-point loss to the league-leading Xavs, a 19-point win over Caulfield, then a 10-point loss to Brighton last weekend, after leading the Tonners by 22 points at three-quarter time.

Throw in a gritty 19-point loss to Blacks (just 5 points down at the last break), a 2-point loss to the Bloods, a 19-point win over Caulfield, and a 12-point win over the league-leading Blues, and their overall body of work over the past six weeks has been much better than you’d expect from a wooden spooner.

However, you could say something similar about Old Trinity’s last month-and-a-half, which has also been quite decent: a 5 point loss to Haileybury, 11 point loss to Brighton, a draw with Caulfield, a 6 point win over Scotch, a 56 point loss to Blacks (the outlier), and a 31 point loss to SKOB.

Sure, the past two starts have been challenging, but in the main, they’ve done a good job of putting the wheels back on since SKOB destroyed them by 115 points in Round 10. At that stage, the back-end of the season was shaping as miserable and relegation looked almost certain.

So, to be out of the relegation zone (just) entering the final round is a credit to this team in its first season back in the top flight after winning last season’s Premier B flag.

The Dogs will fancy their chances on the inside, and will look to control the contest from there with their fleet of gritty, combative midfielders, while the T’s will look to control the footy on the outside.

They will be well aware of their need to also take territory with their uncontested possession chains, and will take confidence from the fact that these are two lowest Intercept teams in the league, so turnovers may not be as prevalent as in other match-ups.

Trinity are generally tidier around goal, and that ties in with them generally being more efficient at hitting their targets Inside 50. Dom Payman’s ability to mark the ball in dangerous positions will be critical once again.

No doubt the Doggie faithful will be out in force once again, and they would love nothing more than to drag Old Trinity down to Premier B with them.

But the T’s will be just as determined to secure their own safety and celebrate much-loved premiership coach Donald McDonald’s farewell in style.

All indicators suggest we could be in for a thrilling afternoon at the Snake Pit, as Trinity fans keep one eye on the scoreboard and the other on the VAFA app!

Watch this vital game LIVE & EXCLUSIVELY on Kommunity TV from 1.55pm Saturday!

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OLD XAVERIANS vs OLD SCOTCH (Saturday 2pm – Toorak Park: VAFA TV & KTV)

These two powerhouses played one of the all-time great VAFA Finals on Preliminary Final Day last season, but this time around, we’ll have to settle for a final round home & away clash.

The Cardinals won that epic 2025 Prelim courtesy of Angus Jones’ final kick of the day, but unlike last season, the 2024 premiers weren’t quite able to come storming into September with a withering late run this year.

They found themselves chasing their season once again after losing 6 of their first 7, and while they rallied mid-season to win 5 out of 6, it’s largely been a stop-start season for the Cards, as they struggled to get their best line-up on the park.

Three losses in the past 4 weeks ended their faint finals hopes, but they arrive at Round 18 safe from relegation and able to take a free swing at Old Xavs who, on the other hand, are in the premiership race right up to their eyeballs.

It’s been 10 years since the Red & Black Mafia celebrated their last top-flight flag, and, all season long, they’ve been a clear contender to break that drought, piecing together an impressive 14-3 campaign.

The three losses were to Old Trinity (36 points in Round 2), Uni Blues (39 points in Round 12), and Old Brighton (11 points in Round 14). But every time they fell, Dan Donati’s team jumped right back on the horse.

Blessed with talent, strength and experience all over the park, they have all the tools for a deep September run.

Ranked #1 in Attack (99 ppg), they’ve put plenty of teams to the sword, racking up half of their 14 wins by 45 points or more.

But they’re also ranked #2 in Defence (68 ppg) and boast the ability to lock teams down the other way as well.

They dispatched Old Scotch by 54 points in Round 3, desperate to send a message after being shocked by the T’s in one of the upsets of the year the week before.

In fact, they’ve won 4 out of their last 5 over the Cardinals (with the exception being last year’s Preliminary Final), and will start as warm favourites to extend their run further this weekend.

But to dismiss Old Scotch so summarily would be foolish. This is a team that thrives on unlikely challenges, and wouldn’t they love to toss a grenade into Old Xavs’ September preparations this weekend.

The numbers suggest that Xavs will get first hands on the footy around stoppage more often than not, and the test for the Cards will be disrupting their ability to get the Sherrin out into space, where Xavs’ runners like Campbell Lane can cause havoc in a hurry.

Only Old Brighton’s Luca Macnab has touched the ball more than Campbell this season (486 Disposals to 485), and Campbell has played 3 fewer matches. Averaging an incredible 34.6 Disposals per game, the former Collingwood VFL gun will surely be in Woodrow Medal contention after a spectacularly consistent campaign.

But Lane is just one of many who can rack up touches and make good things happen for Xavs. Charlie Knott, Sam Hansen, Sam Fisher, Marcus Stavrou… the list goes on and on.

So, even if Old Scotch aren’t winning a lot of first possession themselves, they’ve got to be switched on to preventing Xavs from busting out into the open, because as good as the Cards’ intercept game is, Old Xavs’ strikepower up forward is just as formidable.

Charlie Cormack sits alongside Bloods’ gun Durras Seccull as the best two Interceptors in the competition. They are that rare breed that can control a game from behind the ball – always well positioned to get in the way of opposition attacks, then capable of orchestrating attacks of their own from the back half.

Led by Cormack, Scotch are the #1 Intercepting marking team in the comp, and that generally provides their launching pad for attack as they whisk the ball forward in uncontested chains to their gun forwards.

But Xavs are a different beast to most. If you allow them to pump the ball Inside 50 time and again, they’re going to get on the end of it and do some damage on the scoreboard.

Spearhead Charlie Macisaac has enjoyed a sensational season. Sitting second on the league goalkicking behind Blue James Stewart, Charlie has slotted 59 goals and has taken the most Marks Inside 50 in the competition.

But he’s not the only one that Scotch has to worry about.

Ed Delany (25 goals), Wade Brusnahan (21) and Charlie Knott (18) have been consistent goalscorers all season, and with the likes of creative duo Alwyn Davey and Ollie Sestan working their way into their seasons superbly, plus additional X-factor appearances from Stirling Phipps-Parsons and Tex Wanganeen, Xavs have an embarrassment of riches in the front half.

However, the Cards have some match-winners of their own up forward, depending on who takes the field on any given Saturday.

Big V duo Will Clark (33 goals) and Angus Jones (19 goals) have been the mainstays, albeit Jones has endured a frustrating season of injuries that have interrupted his progress. The Cards have also relied on a supporting cast that are also in double-figure majors: Cooper Lean (17), Quinn Spencer (15), Henry Brown (14), Ben Fergusson (12) and Angus Symons (11).

Whoever gets the job on Will Goss inside 50 for Scotch will not only need to think about scoring, but also minimising the damage Goss can do the other way. He has been a revelation down back for the Xavs this season, and his Rebounding influence needs to be minimised.

Finishing second last season, Old Xaverians haven’t won the minor premiership since 2013. They currently trail Uni Blues by 3.28%, so remain very much in the mix entering the final day.

But Old Scotch would love to close out their campaign by throwing a spanner in the Old Xavs’ works.

Catch this clash as part of an OLD XAVERIANS DOUBLE-HEADER from 9.15am Saturday!

It kicks off with the Xavs-St Bede’s Mentone Tigers Holmesglen Under 19 Premier clash LIVE & EXCLUSIVE on KTV from 9.15am, then continues later in the day with the Premier Men’s showdown between the Xavs and Cards on both VAFA TV & KTV from 1.55pm!

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ST KEVIN’S vs UNIVERSITY BLUES (Saturday 2pm – TH King Oval)

The Top 4 clash of the round sees St Kevin’s measure up against the league-leading Blues, who are fighting to secure their first minor premiership since 2019.

SKOB have been building towards September, regaining more than a dozen Best 22 players in recent weeks as they prepare for their eighth consecutive finals campaign.

Having won 9 of 10 through the middle of the season, they were then understandably affected by those absences and had to endure a challenging 5-week stretch in which they dropped games to Old Scotch and Old Xavs and squeaked out 3-point wins over Caulfield and Blacks.

Last season, coach Anthony Lynch rested 13 players in their final round loss to St Bernard’s, and SKOB were never in the hunt in the First Semi Final against Old Scotch a fortnight later.

But given their absentees in recent weeks, the opportunity to have one last hit-out before this year’s First Semi Final clash against Old Brighton will surely deliver valuable game-time for those looking to get some miles into their legs ahead of next week’s pre-finals bye.

It also provides a chance to test themselves against the current benchmark, Uni Blues, who have put together an outstanding 14-3 campaign, with one of those three losses coming to SKOB, who defeated them by 23 points in Round 4.

The Blues have been flag favourites since accounting for Old Xavs in their Round 12 top-of-the-table clash, and the weight of expectation seems to sit comfortably with them, given they have won 4 of 5 since. In fact, their only blemish since Round 5 was their shock 2-goal loss to a gritty St Bernard’s a fortnight ago.

The next step for the Blueboys is to stamp their authority on the other finalists around them. Entering that Xavs game, they had won just 1 of their last 8 matches against fellow finalists Xavs, the Tonners and SKOB.

That 39-point victory over Xavs felt like something of a statement from the Blues, who will now look to follow suit against St Kevin’s, who have beaten the Blues in their last 4 clashes by 23, 42, 52 and 23 points.

The Blues have won just one of their last 7 at TH King since 2017 – a 2-point thriller in Round 13 of 2023. The two teams met again in the Preliminary Final that year, with SKOB winning emphatically by 45 points.

Matt Smith’s team will once again be without the league’s leading goalkicker, James Stewart, who will serve the second and final week of his suspension. But as they proved last week, the Blues are far from a one-man band up forward, with Sam Grimley (5 goals) and Ben Townson (4 goals) stepping up to fill the breach.

Their Top 5 goalscorers have slotted an impressive 172 goals between them, with Stewart accounting for 71, Grimley 39, Townson 29, James Curran 17 and Charlie Cotter 16. They rank #3 in Attack overall.

St Kevin’s rank #2 and also have multiple match-winners Inside 50, with their Top 5 booting a combined 115 majors, with Jacob Koschitzke (30 goals), Sam Tucker (28), Doug Kerr (24), and Jack Behnk (22) having the potential to form a potent quartet – IF they ever actually play together, given they have all been missing for extended periods at times throughout the season.

If SKOB can get them all out there at once come September, it will be fascinating to see how they gel. If it clicks, it could push St Kevin’s over the top.

This traditionally defence-based line-up has been invigorated by this revamped attack in 2026, and it’s taken some pressure off their defence, which isn’t required to tightly restrict the opposition to low scores for the team to win games. SKOB’s Attack has gone from #3 last year (averaging 83 ppg) to #2 this year, averaging 97 points per game.

Yet SKOB have conceded little at the other end, with the Defence ranked #4 (conceding 75 points per game), compared with 2025’s #3 Defence, which conceded an average of 65 per game.

By comparison, Uni Blues have leapt up from #8 Attack (67ppg) to #3 (94ppg), while their Defence has jumped from #6 (76ppg) to #1 this year (63 ppg). All up, that represents an impressive 40-point-per-game turnaround and a ladder jump from 8^th to 1^st as they put all the pieces together and added a few handy new ones.

Both teams like to possess the ball, with SKOB holding a slight edge in contested ball, but the Blues are more dangerous around stoppage, so dominant St Kevin’s ruck Billy Coates will have a huge role to play.

These are the Top 2 Inside 50 teams in the comp, so expect some fluent ball movement. But the Blues lay significantly more tackle pressure (#3 Tackles vs St Kevin’s #10), and tend to have slightly superior Intercept numbers, so St Kevin’s will need to be careful when pushing forward. Fortunately, they are #1 in the comp for hitting targets entering Forward 50.

Both these teams are strong in the air (#2 and #3 for Contested Marks and Marks Inside 50), so the aerial battle also looms as crucial.

There will be intrigue at the selection table, then fascination to see how this match-up plays out.

It’s an early taste of September at TH King – catch it from 2pm Saturday!

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CAULFIELD GRAMMARIANS vs OLD BRIGHTON (Saturday 2.40pm – Glen Huntly Park)

If Old Haileybury DO win on Saturday, the final relegation spot will be decided by the FINAL GAME of the home & away season, given this clash at Glen Huntly Park will start 40 minutes later than the other matches.

Both Bloods and Trinity fans will be glued to the VAFA app, manically refreshing the scores while the Fields fight for their survival against the reigning champs.

The Snowdogs’ performance against Old Brighton last week will have reinforced Caulfield’s belief that they are well capable of determining their own destiny by winning this game and finishing their return season to Premier Men’s in style.

The Dogs booted 9 goals to 2 across the middle two quarters last week, punishing uncharacteristic Brighton turnovers and travelling like winners.

Until the Tonners found that extra gear that has served them well in recent years.

Their final-quarter masterclass reinforced why they are still very much in the race for back-to-back premierships. They dominated out of the middle, controlled territory and generated 12 scoring shots to 0 for the term as they stormed home for a fighting 10-point win.

But, speaking of ‘fighting,’ that adjective perfectly describes the ‘Fighting Fields’ of 2026.

Paul Satterley’s young team has drawn heavily on its Under 19 program all season, blooding talented youngsters prepared to pop in their mouthguards, roll up their sleeves and work themselves into the ground week after week. They just don’t quit, no matter how grim the scoreboard or momentum swings against them.

It’s a quality and spirit that will serve them well in seasons to come, but first it needs to do so this weekend to keep them in the top tier.

Due to their youth, the Fields aren’t generally a contested ball-winning team, but neither are the Tonners. In fact, these two teams are ranked #7 and #6 respectively in Contested Possession.

However, and this may seem counter-intuitive, Old Brighton are very good in stoppage situations – they are #3 Clearances vs Caulfield’s #10.

While the Tonners don’t dominate contested scraps during general play, they are very dangerous in stoppage situations, with the likes of Harry Hill, young ruck Josh Carr, Luca Macnab, Tom Burnell and Jordie Segar always threatening. 

The Fields will need to be on high alert at stoppages or risk what happened to the Snowdogs in the final quarter last week – they simply couldn’t get their hands on the ball as the Tonners kept whisking it out of the middle and pumping it forward.

These are the Top 2 tackling teams in the competition, so expect it to be pretty hot in the kitchen all afternoon. Caulfield will need to maintain that heat to ensure those Tonners mids can’t escape the congestion and move the ball from inside to outside too quickly or easily. Otherwise, they’ll find themselves chasing all afternoon.

The reigning premiers’ other key strength is their intercept game. No one generates more Intercept Possessions than the Tonners, who pride themselves on pressuring their opposition into errors, then punishing them the other way.

Caulfield ranks #9 for hitting targets entering the Forward 50 and last for Marks Inside 50. They’ve got to be very calculated with their entries this week, or risk seeing the ball fly back over their heads the other way, with interest.

For a team that hasn’t won in 7 weeks, the Fields remain as plucky as ever. They have reliable ball magnets such as Noah Sutherland, Ollie Lowe, Pat Fairlie, Hamish McInerney and Jack Ellwood. They have exciting young talent that never give up. They have a couple of handy goalkickers in Julian Dobosz and Archie Loughnan that can inflict damage if given the supply.

Old Brighton coach Marcel Bruin could barely ask for a better tune-up for September. He knows that this Caulfield side will give everything it has any time, let alone when their survival in Premier Men’s is on the line.

If Old Haileybury set Saturday afternoon alight by defeating the Blacks, then strap yourselves in for what will be an almighty clash between two teams with very different motivations but exactly the same objective!

Catch the action from 2.40pm Saturday at Glen Huntly Park!

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WILLIAM BUCK PREMIER MEN’S – RD 18

Saturday, August 29 – 2pm:

University Blacks     vs             Old Haileybury    1.45pm SEN      

St Bernard’s              vs             Old Trinity           1.55pm KTV

Old Xaverians           vs             Old Scotch           1.55pm VAFA /KTV         

St Kevin’s                 vs             University Blues                  

Caulfield                   vs             Old Brighton