Who will punch their Grand Final ticket – Xavs or SKOB? VAFA William Buck PREMIER MEN’S PRELIMINARY FINAL Preview

University Blues are through to their first Premier Men’s Grand Final since their 2019 premiership. Who will progress to face them on that ‘One Friday in September?’

Will it be the team bouncing back from a heavy Second Semi Final loss, or the team on a roll after scraping home in an epic 1^st Semi Final?

Here’s your preview:

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PRELIMINARY FINAL: OLD XAVERIANS vs ST KEVIN’S

Saturday 2.30pm – Revo Fitness Park (Elsternwick Park)

LIVE coverage – Kommunity TV, VAFA.com.au & SEN app.

Old Xavs have been one of the two clear standout teams of the season, equalling the Blues’ 15-3 home & away record before falling to them in the Second Semi Final by 51 points last weekend.

It’s exactly the same record they held entering last season’s Preliminary Final under identical circumstances – a heavy Semi Final loss before trying to rebound against a dangerous opponent riding high after a First Semi win.

In 2025, Xavs exited in straight sets after a resurgent Old Scotch booted a couple of late goals. Angus Jones ultimately slotted his fifth major with the final kick of the day, denying the Red & Black their first finals win since 2016.

That 10-year drought is one of the game’s storylines. Can Xavs finally get the monkey off their back and win a final after 6 consecutive defeats over the past decade?

St Kevin’s stands in their way.

SKOB finished the season in third spot with a 12-6 record, 3 wins behind Xavs.

They set up their eighth consecutive finals campaign by winning 9 of 10 games between Rounds 3 and 12, before a stop-start run home largely driven by a large number of absentees and the resulting instability.

They arrived at First Semi Final day having lost 3 of their previous 6 matches. After starting brightly, they found themselves in deep trouble after Old Brighton booted 7 goals in 13 minutes to lead by 29 points at half-time.

Coach Anthony Lynch reportedly peeled the paint off the walls like never before with an ‘honest’ address at the main break, and his charges responded with 4 goals in 10 minutes to get back into the game in the third quarter.

They dominated the last term and finally got their noses in front at the 28-minute mark after a heads-up play from Billy Coates and Sam Tucker delivered the rushed behind that won them the game by that single point.

It was a gritty, resilient performance that will see them roll up to face Xavs with confidence and belief that, even if they fall behind, if they stick to their plan and execute, they can fight their way back.

If things are tight late in the game, it feels like their respective histories will weigh heavier on Xavs. But it’s also a wonderful opportunity for this group of Xavs players to write their own history.

THE MATCH-UP

So how do they match up at either end?

OLD XAVS                             ST KEVIN’S

#1            Attack v Defence           #4

#2            Defence v Attack           #2

They are the Top 2 attacks in the competition, with Old Xavs holding the slight edge (98ppg to 94).

Defensively, there’s a marginally larger gap, with SKOB conceding 7pts more per game.

ATTACK

Both teams boast multiple avenues to goal and are the Top 2 teams for Marks Inside 50 (Xavs #1). SKOB is #1 at hitting their forward targets and retains possession when entering their Forward 50 an impressive 52% of the time.

St Kevin’s have a quartet of marking forwards capable of mixing and matching on any given day, with each taking turns as the main focal point depending on who gets the favourable match-up and golden opportunities.

Last week, it was first-year gun Doug Kerr’s turn, as he booted 4 goals in the opening term and finished with 5 for the day. Aside from Kerr, their other 7 goals were kicked by 7 different goalscorers, highlighting their ability to share the load.

Kerr now has 31 goals for the season, ahead of Jacob Koschitzke (30), Sam Tucker (29), and Jack Behnk (25).

Last time these sides met, Anthony Lynch threw defender Ethan Phillips forward, and he booted 4 goals in just over a quarter, despite having kicked only 3 goals in his previous 24 VAFA appearances. SKOB are all about plug-and-play versatility. It matters not WHO kicks the goals, just that they are kicked.

Meanwhile, Xavs were held to their lowest score since Round 2 of 2025 last week, as the Blues did a superb job of denying the potent Red & Black attacking fleet quality supply.

More on that in a moment, when we discuss the midfields.

When on song, Xavs can outscore you in multiple ways.

Charlie Macisaac has had an outstanding season to be the league’s #2 goalkicker behind James Stewart. He is Xavs’ main focal point, and has booted 64 goals for the year, including goals in every match.

It’s telling that all 3 of Xavs’ losses this season sit in Charlie’s bottom 5 ranked matches. So, while Old Xavs do have other options capable of chipping in and helping to build a winning score, there’s a greater singular reliance on Charlie to have an impact than there is on any SKOB forward at the other end.

With Macisaac leading the way on 64 goals, the supporting cast is deep and dangerous: Ed Delany (27), Wade Brusnahan (24), Charlie Knott (19), Julian Gangi (13), Ollie Sestan (12), and then a bunch of goalkicking mids as well.

But Macisaac and Delany are the two main marking presences that SKOB coach Anthony Lynch will have front of mind.

In their Round 1 clash, Macisaac kicked 3, and Delany 0 in Xavs’ 26-point win. In Round 16, Macisaac kicked 4 and Delany 1 in Xavs’ 39-point victory. So, it’s clear that Xavs can win without Delany having a major scoreboard influence, as long as Macisaac is keeping the scorers busy.

Who gets the job on Macisaac and how effectively they nullify him will likely go a long way to determining who will meet Uni Blues on Grand Final Day.

He’s just that good.

THE MIDFIELD BATTLE

The midfields will, as always, have a huge role to play – not just in winning and moving the footy between the arcs, but also in pushing back to support their defence, pressuring opposition ball movement and providing their attack with enough supply to kick a winning score.

Xavs are the #1 Disposal team in the competition, and when their game is up and going, they own the Sherrin.

Last week, the Blues did an outstanding job of denying them possession, thereby preventing the overlap run, drive and launch that feeds Macisaac and co.

Xavs were pinned in their own back half for extended periods as the Blues built an impenetrable defensive wall that the Red & Black could not find a way over or around.

For context, Xavs average 377 Disposals per game. Last week, they were held to just 298 Disposals – clearly their lowest for the season.

They recorded season-low Kicks, Handballs, Contested Possessions, Ground Ball Gets, and Loose Ball Gets. They couldn’t win enough footy, and when they did, they struggled to retain it as they typically do.

The result? Their fewest Inside 50s for the season. Just 34 for a team that averages 51. Macisaac and company simply didn’t get enough opportunities to kick Xavs a winning score.

‘Plugger’ Lynch and his SKOB brethren will have studied the Second Semi Final tape closely, as will Xavs coach Dan Donati and his team. Can SKOB do to Xavs what the Blues did last week? It will be easier said than done, and it will be interesting to see what adjustments Xavs have made in 7 days.

But Xavs will also have seen some weaknesses in SKOB’s Semi Final tape, particularly Old Brighton’s second-quarter blitz, when St Kevin’s could barely get a hand to the ball for half a quarter. They were held to just 58 Disposals for the entire term, with a Kick Efficiency of just 25%, as Brighton’s relentless pressure and physicality overwhelmed SKOB and created one-way traffic that delivered 7 goals in 13 minutes.

Plugger and his midfield group will surely have studied that period of the game closely and worked on defensive strategies to stem the bleeding in the middle if Alec Spralja, Sam Fisher, Marcus Stavrou and co start to get on top.

The ruck battle promises to be an absolute beauty and will be critical to the overall outcome – Alec Spralja versus Billy Coates is always must-see TV, with both big men capable of providing silver-service to their midfields, who do the rest.

Big, bad, bustling Billy is SKOB’s #1 man in the middle. He has 192 Clearances – an incredible 40 more than ANY other player in the competition. Ben Mansfield is second for SKOB on 91 – that’s how important the big man is to St Kevin’s.

Coates’ ability not only to win valuable hitouts but also to use his size and strength to rip the ball out of stoppages is pivotal to SKOB’s game plan.

He has 124 Score Involvements, with Will Pfeiffer second on 85. Good things happen for SKOB when Billy is involved, so just as SKOB needs to minimise Macisaac’s impact, Xavs need to do likewise with Billy.

SKOB can’t allow 2 or 3 quick goals to become 5 or 6, or their season could slip away quickly. Xavs are excellent front-runners and have repeatedly pounded teams into submission throughout the season.

9 of their 15 wins have been by 35 points or more, and their 39-point victory over SKOB in Round 16 saw them kick 13 of the first 17 goals of the match to effectively put the game to bed by midway through the third term.

So, if Alec Spralja manages to break even or shade Coates in the ruck battle, Xavs will be well on their way to victory.

RECENT MEETINGS:

Rd.2, 2025         SKOB by 3pts

Rd.10, 2025      Old Xavs by 32

Rd.1, 2026         Old Xavs by 26

Rd.16, 2026      Old Xavs by 39

Old Xaverians have had St Kevin’s measure over the past two seasons, but these two VAFA powerhouses haven’t met in a final since the 2019 Preliminary Final, when SKOB did a number on Xavs, belting them by 64 points on their way to facing… Uni Blues on Grand Final Day.

Will history repeat itself and add another year onto Xavs’ finals drought, or will the Red & Black Mafia finally be celebrating in September once again?

Sit back and enjoy this blockbuster LIVE & EXCLUSIVELY on Kommunity TV, with our award-winning radio coverage on VAFA.com.au & the SEN app from 2.15pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

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VAFA MEDIA TIPS:      

Matthew Donald –                 Old Xaverians by 13pts

Hugo Higginbotham –            Old Xaverians by 8pts

Brayden May –                        Old Xaverians by 20pts

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