Queen’s Birthday History

Tom Neuendorf

The bye round grants every club in the VAFA an opportunity to review their performance to this point of the season. For some clubs, the message will be to continue what they are doing well and hammer home a strong start to the season. For others, the Queen’s Birthday weekend provides a chance to regroup, right wrongs and start again.

By the Queen’s Birthday weekend in the VAFA, the premiers should be firmly grounded in the top four, and the top four should be relatively set. At least, that’s what history tells us. In fact, in three out of the last four seasons the team sitting top of the table at the break have gone on to win the flag in William Buck Premier. If history repeats itself, Old Trinity should have one hand on the L.A Adamson Cup. Though, the devastating knee injury to Brendan Iezzi and injury to Jack Osborn could prove telling.

This year is a different beast however, and you get the feeling that the evenness of William Buck Premier has reached a level unsighted in season’s past. Defending champions University Blacks are in the midst of a mid-season resurgence after what can only be described as a classic premiership hangover. They sit 5^th on the table, half a game outside of the top four. Both Collegians and Old Scotch stormed home from outside the top four last year so there should be no issues for Blacks on that front. A double chance though might be harder to obtain, although in 2013, St Bedes/Mentone Tigers managed to claim 2^nd spot after heading into the break in 5^th.

Needless to say, miracles can occur. The Under 19 South section last season bore witness to such an event. After eight rounds Hampton Rovers were sitting 7^th at 3-5 and an lowly percentage of 82.31%. At round eighteen they had clawed their way back to 4^th spot, and on the morning of September the 13^th it would have taken a brave individual to bet against Ormond in the Grand Final. The Rovers triumphed in one of the more outrageous results in recent memory.

And what of falls from grace? In Premier B last season Fitzroy had started the season strongly, knocking off a talented St Kevin’s outfit on their way to fourth spot at the break. The Roys were brimming with confidence and boasted the second best defensive record at that point in the season. For one reason or another, they lost 8 out of their last 10 matches and had a dismal percentage of 60.88% over the stretch. Such a form slump can be attributed to a multitude of factors; key injuries, fatigue, or a tough draw. These are the challenges that will inevitably come knocking at the door of finals aspirants between now and round 18.

Momentum is a funny thing in football, an unexplainable phenomenon which has to be either seen or experienced to be understood. Fledgling clubs only have to look as far as the heroics of the Richmond Football Club in the AFL last season for inspiration to make a late season surge.

Wind the clock back to 2011, Old Camberwell were sitting dead last at the bye round in Premier C. In round 18 they played Rupertswood in a playoff match for fourth spot, securing a 30-point victory on route to an eventual preliminary final defeat at the hands of a red hot AJAX. They are the only side in the past four seasons of the VAFA to come from last position to a preliminary final after the Queen’s Birthday weekend. In the same season Eltham Collegians in Division 1 went on an 8-1-1 flurry to end the season, coming from the clouds to snatch fourth position from seventh at the bye.

As we enter the second half of the season it will be fascinating to see which teams in the VAFA are able to build upon their strong start to the season, and which teams fall apart before they reach the final hurdle.