Tigers catch their red, white & prey

Jake Morris

Roaring all the way to the top four. The South Mornington Tigers have done what many thought was impossible, climbing all the way back from a 1-5 start to now hold one of the all-important top four positions, and are in the box seat to register their first finals appearance in D4 since 2012. The Swans continued their nosedive down the table with another loss, but this time at the hands of the previously winless Masala. The Bulls put an end to Parkside’s eight-game winning streak in a scrappy clash at Allard Park, while Box Hill North claimed their first victory since mid-May and St Francis Xavier took care of business to remain in the top four.

In a contest that some may have considered to be a danger game, North Brunswick was able to quiet their doubters with a comprehensive victory over the streaking Parkside. The Bulls opponents this weekend in Eley Park were beaten pillar to post by a rampaging South Mornington squad hell bent on featuring in September action. Now sitting three games clear on top and with a healthy percentage, the Bulls have all but locked up the minor-premiership, with a win here solidifying that award. The Sharks are still right in contention to feature in finals action, but after last round’s defeat and a lacklustre percentage, they almost certainly have to win to claim a top four finish. The Bulls electrifying scoring ability (ranked 1^st with 121-points per game) mixed with the Sharks below-average defensive structure (ranked 8^th conceding 99-points per game) could see this one turn into a one-way shootout.

After two-months of blemish-free football, Parkside finally met their match in the ladder-leading Bulls, who took advantage of the Red-Devils inaccurate kicking to send them to their first loss since May 12^th. Looking to bounce back, the Red-Devils will welcome Box Hill North to Pitcher Park who will look to register their second win a row, after going winless since Round 7. Well-entrenched inside the top four and two games clear of third placed St Francis Xavier, the Red-Devils would need a catastrophic last three weeks to lose grip on a finals spot, and with games against the slumping Swans and Rams to follow, the likelihood of that happening is very slim. Look for Parkside’s four-headed forward line monster in Sam Gilfedder, Matt Soligo, Adam Moffa and Isaac Romano to get a hold of the Dees defence early and blow this one out in a percentage boosting victory.

Thanks to a dominant second-half display which included 17-majors to just three, St Francis Xavier were able to capture some of their early-season form and end their three-game losing streak in a romp of Elsternwick. Their opponents this round in Mt Lilydale were mathematically eliminated from finals contention after their 59-point drubbing at the hands of the Dees, leaving them playing for nothing more than pride. Despite their mid-season drop in form, the X-Men still find themselves entrenched within the top four, but with the Tigers breathing down their neck, they cannot afford anymore lapses. The Rams have seemingly put their defensive identity on the backburner the last three weeks, giving up a combined 413 points for an average of just under 138 points per game. This could spell serious danger for the Rams if the X-Men have indeed returned to their dominant early-season form, form that saw them blowout teams by an average of 94-points from Rounds 1 to 7. The Rams are in a major slump and the X-Men look to be hitting their straps at the right time.

In a matchup between 4^th and 5^th at this stage of the season, you wouldn’t be crazy to think that this game has the makings of a thriller, but sadly, this could well and truly be a blowout. South Mornington have come from the clouds to leapfrog into the top four with a second-half season burst that few would have predicted. Their last three weeks has seen them claim victories by 109, 102 and 90 points respectively, with each match seeing them kick over 150-points with ease. At the other end of the spectrum, the South Melbourne Districts enter this one with just two wins from their last nine games, an average score of just 79 from those games and, to top it off, a 17-point defeat to the previously winless Masala who celebrate their first victory since June 17^th 2017. Masala had an average losing margin of 107 points and they were able to get the better of the Swans. The ease at which Travis French and his Tiger forward line are scoring at the minute, paired with the Swans current form and inability to defend their goals since Round 7, should tell you all you need to know.

In what is sure to be one of the stranger trends of the season, since Round 9, Elsternwick have played in just one game considered to be ‘close’, a Round 14 win over the Swans by just 10. Other than that win, their three other victories in that span have come by a combined 269 points, while their three losses have been by a combined 244 points. This trend could continue as the usually high-scoring side will welcome the no-longer winless Masala to Elsternwick Park Oval. In arguably the shock of the season, Masala were able to take down the Swans to the tune of 17 points, thanks to three goals apiece from Ben Nugent and Brett Coghill, a momentous achievement that I’m sure was celebrated long and hard by all involved. Look for Elsternwick to get the win here, but a spirited Masala should keep this one from blowing out.