Shootouts & Blowouts or Low-scores & Cliffhangers?

Joe Pignataro

The only way to win games of football is to finish the game with a higher score than the opposition. AFL legend Malcolm Blight’s coaching philosophy centred around “it doesn’t matter what the opposition kick, we’ll just kick a bigger score”

In William Buck Premier as we approach the halfway mark of the 2022 season, scoring overall is down. But, the evenness and closeness of the games are significantly up!

So, what do we prefer? The high-scoring shootouts and blowouts? Or the low-scoring closer affairs?

Before delving into what’s on offer this weekend, the VAFA’s Champion Data computer style numbers have returned the following on scoring in recent years.

*2021 data is collated from the first 7 rounds before COVID cancelled Round 8 & 9

While scoring has gone down over 4-goals per game on average since our most recent completed season (2019). The evenness of the competition has gone up.

Nearly double the games completed after 8 rounds this season have gone down to the wire in comparison to 2019.

Are coaches more defensively minded? Has Melbourne’s inclement weather created “slower tracks”? Or are we seeing the evenness of the competition playing into our hands for closer finishes?

This weekend there’s a lot of excitement heading to Elsternwick Park as Old Brighton make the trek to the home of VAFA football to tackle Old Melburnians. The OM’s are having their best start to a season in a very long time. A win for them over the Tonners has them equal first at the halfway point of the season.

From a scoring perspective, Satts’ men have rectified slow starts in recent weeks outscoring opponents by 49 points in their last three opening quarters. They are one of only two sides to have kicked 100+ points in a game twice this year including last Friday night’s hammering of Collegians. The most impressive piece of artillery OM’s have is the even spread of goalkickers, there’s no one focal point. (9 goalkickers in Round 7, 8 goalkickers in Round 8). The Brighton defence has its work cut out for them.

The Tonners themselves are ranked #2 for overall scoring, the additional strings to their bow are the goals that come from the midfield brigade. Harry Hill, Tom Fisher, Max Kennedy. The x-factors in Anthony Zimmerman. It’s going to be a tantalizing match-up with more than just four points on the line.

Prediction: Cliffhanger

Last weekend Uni Blues claimed their biggest win of the season pushing Old Xaverians out of the top 4 to put themselves in. They also walked away with their biggest winning margin of the year. Close, tight games have been a regular occurrence for Guy Martyn’s men this year, again though, in final quarters they stormed home for their fourth consecutive victory.

This weekend, he heads to the ground he already knows all-too-well and the club he most recently was in charge of before moving over to Uni Blues.

After conceding 8 final quarter goals to Old Scotch in Round 1, the defence of the Blues have conceded only 9 more goals since. St Kevin’s, in the past fortnight, both Xav’s and Brighton have broken through their defensive press and kicked a winning score. Both times, away from T H King.

The Skobbas, along with OM’s are another side to have kicked 100+ points twice this year, they are capable of kicking a big score. Paddy Kerr is chasing the tail of Sam Grimley on the sharpshooters leaderboard. As much as I want to wish this to be a free-flowing contest of end to end footy, much like the 2019 Grand Final, scoring numbers suggest the clamps will come on early and contested footy will be the order of the day.

Prediction: Cliffhanger

Old Xaverians have a real opportunity to stuff the scoresheet against Old Trinity when they welcome them to Toorak Park. Xavier Richards is likely to return to the line-up, he’s played twice this year with returns of 4 goals and 5 goals in both outings, he thrives at home.

James Byrnes’ sides get off to high-flying starts (7-1 in first quarters) but then fall away in the second term, leaving the door slightly ajar. While Xav’s are ranked #9 for second quarters (1-7), Old Trinity are ranked #10 (0-8).

The T’s will call on the footy Gods, as well as Alex Emery, Sam Mason, George Belcher and the Scott boys to assist them in their cause.

Prediction: Blowout

Mark Gnatt’s Old Scotch team has been the surprise packet from the opening half of 2022. A win against Caulfield this weekend has them going into the Queen’s Birthday bye with a 5-4 record that he most likely would’ve taken had he been asked in the pre-season.

The Fields however, they’re coming to Camberwell Sports Park with a full head of steam. Declain Reilly is back, Dane Crognale is playing his best footy since joining the club, Jack Ellwood is the competition’s latest rising star nominee and you can never discount Julian Dobosz, Jack Wallace and Will Edwards.

From a scoring point of view, the Cardinals have a turn of foot that is scary. Twice this year they’ve put the foot on the accelerator and kicked 8 goals in a quarter. If Gnatt gives them the signal this weekend to go and repay the favour to the Fields from the 2019 B-Grade Grand Final, then expect it to be raining goals out at Camberwell.

Prediction: Shootout

There’s more than just pride on the line when St Bernard’s welcomes Collegians to the snakepit. The bottom placed Snowdogs are rebuilding the club from the bottom up with youthful exuberance leading the way. They’ve been in games across the past fortnight but young legs have faded away.

Collegians started last Friday night in a blaze of glory with the opening goal, but that was the only highlight they can hold their hat on. Jared Rivers will be hoping to add some tall timber to his lineup this week, with Oli Jackson shoulder all of the ruck duties.

There are still two key pillars in the Lions armoury, Dave Mirra and Ed Greene. They’ve kicked 33 goals between them making the dynamic duo a dangerous prospect up forward.

Prediction: Low-scores

Of course, it is Australian rules football, and the unpredictable nature of the game lends itself to the odd blowout, and anything happening on any given day.

The one thing that will never change in our great game, you will always win, if you kick a higher score than the opposition.