Can the surprise packet Jackas stave off the circling Sharks?

Premier C Men’s Grand Final Preview – Beaumaris v AJAX

With their promotions to Premier B football for next season already confirmed, the attention of Beaumaris and AJAX turns to what looked like an unlikely Grand Final meeting, just a month ago.

Beaumaris’ qualification for the season’s final weekend is no surprise, such was their dominance in Premier C this season. Josh Bourke’s men have not lost since late April, winning 17 consecutive matches by an average margin of 10 goals. Beaumaris are sound defensively and have a wealth of riches in the midfield and ahead of the ball, employing multiple players in a hybrid mid/forward role this year, to great effect.

The Sharks handily defeated Parkdale Vultures in the first week of finals, 13.23 (101) to 7.8 (50), to secure their Grand Final berth, with inaccuracy preventing an even greater margin.

AJAX, alongside Parkdale, were the early pacesetters in the division, winning their first seven matches, before a player unavailability crisis struck. Speaking to the VAFA’s ‘For the Love of the Game’ podcast this week, coach Lachlan Buszard revealed he’s fielded 58 players in the senior side this year, due to unprecedented travel and injury.

The Jackas would go 5-6 after their strong start, to finish the season in fourth position, albeit in no real danger of missing the finals. Buszard’s men lost three straight matches heading into the finals, in a less-than-ideal precursor to September action.

However, they’ve gained genuine momentum since the ‘real stuff’ started. A breathless five-point win, as underdogs, against St Bedes/Mentone Tigers, started their finals campaign, earning them a meeting with Parkdale, who had bested them a month prior.

A red-hot start from the Jackas saw the Vultures chasing the game, and that was ultimately enough to secure AJAX another underdog victory. Co-captain Kane Nissenbaum wound back the clock in game 100 for the club, booting an influential three majors, while Jordan Cohen was involved in everything offensively, contributing eight score involvements.

AJAX are tough, and uncompromising at the coalface. They win clearance and contested possession counts more often than not, apply significant pressure, and play a team-first, blue collar brand of football.

Beaumaris will go into the clash as roaring favourites, such is their dominance this season, but a plucky AJAX side have surprised many in qualifying for the big dance and will be no pushover. These storylines, and a contrast in tactical approaches, makes for a mouthwatering clash, come Sunday afternoon, at Trevor Barker Beach Oval.

PREVIOUS MEETINGS

Round 17, August 23rd. Beaumaris 15.16 (106) to AJAX 4.11 (35)

An eight-goal blitz in the third term put significant breathing space between Beaumaris and AJAX in their most recent encounter, with both coaches referencing the Sharks’ ‘significant talent’ in the aftermath. It was a day out for Beaumaris, who won the disposal (+98), contested possession (+15) marks (+39) and inside 50 (+22) counts, enroute to a credential-confirming victory.

Round 10, June 21st. Beaumaris 13.13 (91) def AJAX 12.9 (81)

It was the exuberance of youth that kept AJAX at bay in Round 10, with Josh Bourke full of praise for the performances of his youngsters, post-match. In a much closer encounter, the Sharks won the turnover battle, controlled possession through marking chains, and had relative territory ascendancy in a hotly contested match at Oak Street. As is customary, AJAX won the clearance battle and will look to do so again come Sunday.

KEYS TO THE GRAND FINAL

Turning clearances into scoring opportunities

• Per Premier Data, AJAX are ranked elite for clearances, winning 50 per game. The Jackas go inside 50, 51 times per game, ranked above average. Beaumaris win three-fewer clearances per game but go inside 50 ten more times per game than AJAX. Buszard’s men pride themselves on clearance dominance, but it may count for little if winning first possession does not translate to high-percentage shots at the sticks.

Sharks coach Josh Bourke on AJAX’s midfield acumen: “We know that their contested possession stuff, their clearance work, is elite. They lead the comp in those two areas.”

Possession

• As the old adage goes, ‘possession is nine tenths of the law.’ AJAX’s two lowest disposal tallies of the season, and two of their three lowest contested possession tallies of the season, have come against their Grand Final opponents. Beaumaris cracked the ton, taking 100 uncontested marks against AJAX in the Round 17 meeting. If AJAX are to cause the upset on Sunday, they need to both find the ball more themselves and prohibit Beaumaris from ‘defending with possession’.

‘Bad kicking is bad football’

• Another famous cliche in Australian rules football applies here. For all of the Sharks’ dominance this year, poor goalkicking has been a feature of their performances. Per Premier Data, ten times this year, Beaumaris have posted a goal accuracy percentage of less than 50%; a worrying trend that Jackas coach Lachlan Buszard alluded to in his recent podcast appearance. “‘Beauy’ have beaten themselves a couple of times this year; the games they’ve lost, they haven’t kicked (for goal) very well.”

Defensive accountability in the midfield

• Another focus Buszard offered on For the Love of the Game was on stopping Beaumaris’ lethal spread from contest. It’s not the first-time similar praise has been afforded the Sharks midfield by Buszard, with Tom O’Rourke’s running power a focus of his post-match thoughts after the Round 17 encounter.

The Sharks have well-documented talent in their engine room, but this talent works hard defensively, too, exemplified by the eight tackles per game James Taylor applies. AJAX will need similar defensive intent in their engine room to slow Beaumaris’ surge.

Both sides generate ~60% of their scores from turnover, however, Beaumaris defend turnover better, allowing 46% of their opponent’s scores to come from this source, compared to AJAX’s 59%.

The Ruck battle

• Jake Wrobel is coming off a best afield performance in the preliminary final and will need similar production against last year’s Premier B Team of the Year ruckman, in Callum ‘Chopper’ Heath in his 150^th milestone game. The importance of possession and clearance has already been discussed, and first service from the big boys will go a long way to deciding the winner in these metrics, and potentially, the game.

So then, will it be the wealth of riches at Beaumaris’ disposal completing their coronation, or will AJAX cause the upset, after a season of relative turmoil? Get down to Trevor Barker Beach Oval to see it unfold or tune into coverage of the contest live on the SEN app, or vafa.com.au from 2:20pm, Sunday afternoon, to find out!

VAFA Media Tips:

Paddy Grindlay: Beaumaris by 25pts.

Matthew Donald: Beaumaris by 35pts.

Harrison McIlwaine: Beaumaris by 27pts.